Daily Papers

Extending the forecasting time is a critical demand for real applications, such as extreme weather early warning and long-term energy consumption planning. This paper studies the long-term forecasting problem of time series. Prior Transformer-based models adopt various self-attention mechanisms to discover the long-range dependencies. However, intricate temporal patterns of the long-term future prohibit the model from finding reliable dependencies. Also, Transformers have to adopt the sparse versions of point-wise self-attentions for long series efficiency, resulting in the information utilization bottleneck. Going beyond Transformers, we design Autoformer as a novel decomposition architecture with an Auto-Correlation mechanism. We break with the pre-processing convention of series decomposition and renovate it as a basic inner block of deep models. This design empowers Autoformer with progressive decomposition capacities for complex time series. Further, inspired by the stochastic process theory, we design the Auto-Correlation mechanism based on the series periodicity, which conducts the dependencies discovery and representation aggregation at the sub-series level. Auto-Correlation outperforms self-attention in both efficiency and accuracy. In long-term forecasting, Autoformer yields state-of-the-art accuracy, with a 38% relative improvement on six benchmarks, covering five practical applications: energy, traffic, economics, weather and disease. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/Autoformer.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

While large language models (LLMs) are successful in completing various language processing tasks, they easily fail to interact with the physical world by generating control sequences properly. We find that the main reason is that LLMs are not grounded in the physical world. Existing LLM-based approaches circumvent this problem by relying on additional pre-defined skills or pre-trained sub-policies, making it hard to adapt to new tasks. In contrast, we aim to address this problem and explore the possibility to prompt pre-trained LLMs to accomplish a series of robotic manipulation tasks in a training-free paradigm. Accordingly, we propose a framework called LLM+A(ffordance) where the LLM serves as both the sub-task planner (that generates high-level plans) and the motion controller (that generates low-level control sequences). To ground these plans and control sequences on the physical world, we develop the affordance prompting technique that stimulates the LLM to 1) predict the consequences of generated plans and 2) generate affordance values for relevant objects. Empirically, we evaluate the effectiveness of LLM+A in various language-conditioned robotic manipulation tasks, which show that our approach substantially improves performance by enhancing the feasibility of generated plans and control and can easily generalize to different environments.

Existing LLMs exhibit remarkable performance on various NLP tasks, but still struggle with complex real-world tasks, even equipped with advanced strategies like CoT and ReAct. In this work, we propose the CoAct framework, which transfers the hierarchical planning and collaboration patterns in human society to LLM systems. Specifically, our CoAct framework involves two agents: (1) A global planning agent, to comprehend the problem scope, formulate macro-level plans and provide detailed sub-task descriptions to local execution agents, which serves as the initial rendition of a global plan. (2) A local execution agent, to operate within the multi-tier task execution structure, focusing on detailed execution and implementation of specific tasks within the global plan. Experimental results on the WebArena benchmark show that CoAct can re-arrange the process trajectory when facing failures, and achieves superior performance over baseline methods on long-horizon web tasks. Code is available at https://github.com/xmhou2002/CoAct.

We propose an efficient design of Transformer-based models for multivariate time series forecasting and self-supervised representation learning. It is based on two key components: (i) segmentation of time series into subseries-level patches which are served as input tokens to Transformer; (ii) channel-independence where each channel contains a single univariate time series that shares the same embedding and Transformer weights across all the series. Patching design naturally has three-fold benefit: local semantic information is retained in the embedding; computation and memory usage of the attention maps are quadratically reduced given the same look-back window; and the model can attend longer history. Our channel-independent patch time series Transformer (PatchTST) can improve the long-term forecasting accuracy significantly when compared with that of SOTA Transformer-based models. We also apply our model to self-supervised pre-training tasks and attain excellent fine-tuning performance, which outperforms supervised training on large datasets. Transferring of masked pre-trained representation on one dataset to others also produces SOTA forecasting accuracy. Code is available at: https://github.com/yuqinie98/PatchTST.

Time series foundation models have demonstrated impressive performance as zero-shot forecasters. However, achieving effectively unified training on time series remains an open challenge. Existing approaches introduce some level of model specialization to account for the highly heterogeneous nature of time series data. For instance, Moirai pursues unified training by employing multiple input/output projection layers, each tailored to handle time series at a specific frequency. Similarly, TimesFM maintains a frequency embedding dictionary for this purpose. We identify two major drawbacks to this human-imposed frequency-level model specialization: (1) Frequency is not a reliable indicator of the underlying patterns in time series. For example, time series with different frequencies can display similar patterns, while those with the same frequency may exhibit varied patterns. (2) Non-stationarity is an inherent property of real-world time series, leading to varied distributions even within a short context window of a single time series. Frequency-level specialization is too coarse-grained to capture this level of diversity. To address these limitations, this paper introduces Moirai-MoE, using a single input/output projection layer while delegating the modeling of diverse time series patterns to the sparse mixture of experts (MoE) within Transformers. With these designs, Moirai-MoE reduces reliance on human-defined heuristics and enables automatic token-level specialization. Extensive experiments on 39 datasets demonstrate the superiority of Moirai-MoE over existing foundation models in both in-distribution and zero-shot scenarios. Furthermore, this study conducts comprehensive model analyses to explore the inner workings of time series MoE foundation models and provides valuable insights for future research.

Visualizing multiple time series presents fundamental tradeoffs between scalability and visual clarity. Time series capture the behavior of many large-scale real-world processes, from stock market trends to urban activities. Users often gain insights by visualizing them as line charts, juxtaposing or superposing multiple time series to compare them and identify trends and patterns. However, existing representations struggle with scalability: when covering long time spans, leading to visual clutter from too many small multiples or overlapping lines. We propose TiVy, a new algorithm that summarizes time series using sequential patterns. It transforms the series into a set of symbolic sequences based on subsequence visual similarity using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), then constructs a disjoint grouping of similar subsequences based on the frequent sequential patterns. The grouping result, a visual summary of time series, provides uncluttered superposition with fewer small multiples. Unlike common clustering techniques, TiVy extracts similar subsequences (of varying lengths) aligned in time. We also present an interactive time series visualization that renders large-scale time series in real-time. Our experimental evaluation shows that our algorithm (1) extracts clear and accurate patterns when visualizing time series data, (2) achieves a significant speed-up (1000X) compared to a straightforward DTW clustering. We also demonstrate the efficiency of our approach to explore hidden structures in massive time series data in two usage scenarios.

Time series, characterized by a sequence of data points organized in a discrete-time order, are ubiquitous in real-world scenarios. Unlike other data modalities, time series present unique challenges due to their intricate and dynamic nature, including the entanglement of nonlinear patterns and time-variant trends. Analyzing such data is of great significance in practical applications and has been extensively studied for centuries. Recent years have witnessed remarkable breakthroughs in the time series community, with techniques shifting from traditional statistical methods to contemporary deep learning models. In this paper, we delve into the design of deep time series models across various analysis tasks and review the existing literature from two perspectives: basic modules and model architectures. Further, we develop and release Time Series Library (TSLib) as a fair benchmark of deep time series models for diverse analysis tasks. TSLib implements 30 prominent models, covers 30 datasets from different domains, and supports five prevalent analysis tasks. Based on TSLib, we thoroughly evaluate 13 advanced deep time series models across diverse tasks. Empirical results indicate that models with specific structures are well-suited for distinct analytical tasks, providing insights for research and adoption of deep time series models. Code and datasets are available at https://github.com/thuml/Time-Series-Library.

Bilevel optimization is an important formulation for many machine learning problems. Current bilevel optimization algorithms assume that the gradient of the upper-level function is Lipschitz. However, recent studies reveal that certain neural networks such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs) and long-short-term memory networks (LSTMs) exhibit potential unbounded smoothness, rendering conventional bilevel optimization algorithms unsuitable. In this paper, we design a new bilevel optimization algorithm, namely BO-REP, to address this challenge. This algorithm updates the upper-level variable using normalized momentum and incorporates two novel techniques for updating the lower-level variable: initialization refinement and periodic updates. Specifically, once the upper-level variable is initialized, a subroutine is invoked to obtain a refined estimate of the corresponding optimal lower-level variable, and the lower-level variable is updated only after every specific period instead of each iteration. When the upper-level problem is nonconvex and unbounded smooth, and the lower-level problem is strongly convex, we prove that our algorithm requires mathcal{O}(1/epsilon^4) iterations to find an epsilon-stationary point in the stochastic setting, where each iteration involves calling a stochastic gradient or Hessian-vector product oracle. Notably, this result matches the state-of-the-art complexity results under the bounded smoothness setting and without mean-squared smoothness of the stochastic gradient, up to logarithmic factors. Our proof relies on novel technical lemmas for the periodically updated lower-level variable, which are of independent interest. Our experiments on hyper-representation learning, hyperparameter optimization, and data hyper-cleaning for text classification tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm.

Subword-level models have been the dominant paradigm in NLP. However, character-level models have the benefit of seeing each character individually, providing the model with more detailed information that ultimately could lead to better models. Recent works have shown character-level models to be competitive with subword models, but costly in terms of time and computation. Character-level models with a downsampling component alleviate this, but at the cost of quality, particularly for machine translation. This work analyzes the problems of previous downsampling methods and introduces a novel downsampling method which is informed by subwords. This new downsampling method not only outperforms existing downsampling methods, showing that downsampling characters can be done without sacrificing quality, but also leads to promising performance compared to subword models for translation.

Recently, symbolic music generation has become a focus of numerous deep learning research. Structure as an important part of music, contributes to improving the quality of music, and an increasing number of works start to study the hierarchical structure. In this study, we delve into the multi-level structures within music from macro-level and micro-level hierarchies. At the macro-level hierarchy, we conduct phrase segmentation algorithm to explore how phrases influence the overall development of music, and at the micro-level hierarchy, we design skeleton notes extraction strategy to explore how skeleton notes within each phrase guide the melody generation. Furthermore, we propose a novel Phrase-level Cross-Attention mechanism to capture the intrinsic relationship between macro-level hierarchy and micro-level hierarchy. Moreover, in response to the current lack of research on Chinese-style music, we construct our Small Tunes Dataset: a substantial collection of MIDI files comprising 10088 Small Tunes, a category of traditional Chinese Folk Songs. This dataset serves as the focus of our study. We generate Small Tunes songs utilizing the extracted skeleton notes as conditions, and experiment results indicate that our proposed model, Small Tunes Transformer, outperforms other state-of-the-art models. Besides, we design three novel objective evaluation metrics to evaluate music from both rhythm and melody dimensions.

Automatic subtitling is the task of automatically translating the speech of audiovisual content into short pieces of timed text, i.e. subtitles and their corresponding timestamps. The generated subtitles need to conform to space and time requirements, while being synchronised with the speech and segmented in a way that facilitates comprehension. Given its considerable complexity, the task has so far been addressed through a pipeline of components that separately deal with transcribing, translating, and segmenting text into subtitles, as well as predicting timestamps. In this paper, we propose the first direct ST model for automatic subtitling that generates subtitles in the target language along with their timestamps with a single model. Our experiments on 7 language pairs show that our approach outperforms a cascade system in the same data condition, also being competitive with production tools on both in-domain and newly-released out-domain benchmarks covering new scenarios.

Procedures are inherently hierarchical. To "make videos", one may need to "purchase a camera", which in turn may require one to "set a budget". While such hierarchical knowledge is critical for reasoning about complex procedures, most existing work has treated procedures as shallow structures without modeling the parent-child relation. In this work, we attempt to construct an open-domain hierarchical knowledge-base (KB) of procedures based on wikiHow, a website containing more than 110k instructional articles, each documenting the steps to carry out a complex procedure. To this end, we develop a simple and efficient method that links steps (e.g., "purchase a camera") in an article to other articles with similar goals (e.g., "how to choose a camera"), recursively constructing the KB. Our method significantly outperforms several strong baselines according to automatic evaluation, human judgment, and application to downstream tasks such as instructional video retrieval. A demo with partial data can be found at https://wikihow-hierarchy.github.io. The code and the data are at https://github.com/shuyanzhou/wikihow_hierarchy.