Daily Papers

Irregularly sampled time series data arise naturally in many application domains including biology, ecology, climate science, astronomy, and health. Such data represent fundamental challenges to many classical models from machine learning and statistics due to the presence of non-uniform intervals between observations. However, there has been significant progress within the machine learning community over the last decade on developing specialized models and architectures for learning from irregularly sampled univariate and multivariate time series data. In this survey, we first describe several axes along which approaches to learning from irregularly sampled time series differ including what data representations they are based on, what modeling primitives they leverage to deal with the fundamental problem of irregular sampling, and what inference tasks they are designed to perform. We then survey the recent literature organized primarily along the axis of modeling primitives. We describe approaches based on temporal discretization, interpolation, recurrence, attention and structural invariance. We discuss similarities and differences between approaches and highlight primary strengths and weaknesses.

Learning accurate predictive models of real-world dynamic phenomena (e.g., climate, biological) remains a challenging task. One key issue is that the data generated by both natural and artificial processes often comprise time series that are irregularly sampled and/or contain missing observations. In this work, we propose the Neural Continuous-Discrete State Space Model (NCDSSM) for continuous-time modeling of time series through discrete-time observations. NCDSSM employs auxiliary variables to disentangle recognition from dynamics, thus requiring amortized inference only for the auxiliary variables. Leveraging techniques from continuous-discrete filtering theory, we demonstrate how to perform accurate Bayesian inference for the dynamic states. We propose three flexible parameterizations of the latent dynamics and an efficient training objective that marginalizes the dynamic states during inference. Empirical results on multiple benchmark datasets across various domains show improved imputation and forecasting performance of NCDSSM over existing models.

We study the problem of estimating the time delay between two signals representing delayed, irregularly sampled and noisy versions of the same underlying pattern. We propose and demonstrate an evolutionary algorithm for the (hyper)parameter estimation of a kernel-based technique in the context of an astronomical problem, namely estimating the time delay between two gravitationally lensed signals from a distant quasar. Mixed types (integer and real) are used to represent variables within the evolutionary algorithm. We test the algorithm on several artificial data sets, and also on real astronomical observations of quasar Q0957+561. By carrying out a statistical analysis of the results we present a detailed comparison of our method with the most popular methods for time delay estimation in astrophysics. Our method yields more accurate and more stable time delay estimates: for Q0957+561, we obtain 419.6 days for the time delay between images A and B. Our methodology can be readily applied to current state-of-the-art optical monitoring data in astronomy, but can also be applied in other disciplines involving similar time series data.

Advances in medical imaging technologies have enabled the collection of longitudinal images, which involve repeated scanning of the same patients over time, to monitor disease progression. However, predictive modeling of such data remains challenging due to high dimensionality, irregular sampling, and data sparsity. To address these issues, we propose ImageFlowNet, a novel model designed to forecast disease trajectories from initial images while preserving spatial details. ImageFlowNet first learns multiscale joint representation spaces across patients and time points, then optimizes deterministic or stochastic flow fields within these spaces using a position-parameterized neural ODE/SDE framework. The model leverages a UNet architecture to create robust multiscale representations and mitigates data scarcity by combining knowledge from all patients. We provide theoretical insights that support our formulation of ODEs, and motivate our regularizations involving high-level visual features, latent space organization, and trajectory smoothness. We validate ImageFlowNet on three longitudinal medical image datasets depicting progression in geographic atrophy, multiple sclerosis, and glioblastoma, demonstrating its ability to effectively forecast disease progression and outperform existing methods. Our contributions include the development of ImageFlowNet, its theoretical underpinnings, and empirical validation on real-world datasets. The official implementation is available at https://github.com/KrishnaswamyLab/ImageFlowNet.

Large-scale pre-trained models (PTMs) such as BERT and GPT have recently achieved great success in Natural Language Processing and Computer Vision domains. However, the development of PTMs on healthcare time-series data is lagging behind.This underscores the limitations of the existing transformer-based architectures, particularly their scalability to handle large-scale time series and ability to capture long-term temporal dependencies. In this study, we present Timely Generative Pre-trained Transformer (TimelyGPT). TimelyGPT employs an extrapolatable position (xPos) embedding to encode trend and periodic patterns into time-series representations. It also integrates recurrent attention and temporal convolution modules to effectively capture global-local temporal dependencies. We evaluated TimelyGPT on two large-scale healthcare time series datasets corresponding to continuous biosignals and irregularly-sampled time series, respectively. Our experiments show that during pre-training, TimelyGPT excels in learning time-series representations from continuously monitored biosignals and irregularly-sampled time series data commonly observed in longitudinal electronic health records (EHRs). In forecasting continuous biosignals, TimelyGPT achieves accurate extrapolation up to 6,000 timesteps of body temperature during the sleep stage transition, given a short look-up window (i.e., prompt) containing only 2,000 timesteps. For irregularly-sampled time series, TimelyGPT with a proposed time-specific inference demonstrates high top recall scores in predicting future diagnoses using early diagnostic records, effectively handling irregular intervals between clinical records. Together, we envision TimelyGPT to be useful in a broad spectrum of health domains, including long-term patient health state forecasting and patient risk trajectory prediction.

Modern-day time-domain photometric surveys collect a lot of observations of various astronomical objects and the coming era of large-scale surveys will provide even more information on their properties. Spectroscopic follow-ups are especially crucial for transients such as supernovae and most of these objects have not been subject to such studies. }{Flux time series are actively used as an affordable alternative for photometric classification and characterization, for instance, peak identifications and luminosity decline estimations. However, the collected time series are multidimensional and irregularly sampled, while also containing outliers and without any well-defined systematic uncertainties. This paper presents a search for the best-performing methods to approximate the observed light curves over time and wavelength for the purpose of generating time series with regular time steps in each passband.}{We examined several light curve approximation methods based on neural networks such as multilayer perceptrons, Bayesian neural networks, and normalizing flows to approximate observations of a single light curve. Test datasets include simulated PLAsTiCC and real Zwicky Transient Facility Bright Transient Survey light curves of transients.}{The tests demonstrate that even just a few observations are enough to fit the networks and improve the quality of approximation, compared to state-of-the-art models. The methods described in this work have a low computational complexity and are significantly faster than Gaussian processes. Additionally, we analyzed the performance of the approximation techniques from the perspective of further peak identification and transients classification. The study results have been released in an open and user-friendly Fulu Python library available on GitHub for the scientific community.

Despite the eminent successes of deep neural networks, many architectures are often hard to transfer to irregularly-sampled and asynchronous time series that commonly occur in real-world datasets, especially in healthcare applications. This paper proposes a novel approach for classifying irregularly-sampled time series with unaligned measurements, focusing on high scalability and data efficiency. Our method SeFT (Set Functions for Time Series) is based on recent advances in differentiable set function learning, extremely parallelizable with a beneficial memory footprint, thus scaling well to large datasets of long time series and online monitoring scenarios. Furthermore, our approach permits quantifying per-observation contributions to the classification outcome. We extensively compare our method with existing algorithms on multiple healthcare time series datasets and demonstrate that it performs competitively whilst significantly reducing runtime.

Accurate predictions using sequential spatiotemporal data are crucial for various applications. Utilizing real-world data, we aim to learn the intent of a smart device user within confined areas of a vehicle's surroundings. However, in real-world scenarios, environmental factors and sensor limitations result in non-stationary and irregularly sampled data, posing significant challenges. To address these issues, we developed a Transformer-based approach, STaRFormer, which serves as a universal framework for sequential modeling. STaRFormer employs a novel, dynamic attention-based regional masking scheme combined with semi-supervised contrastive learning to enhance task-specific latent representations. Comprehensive experiments on 15 datasets varying in types (including non-stationary and irregularly sampled), domains, sequence lengths, training samples, and applications, demonstrate the efficacy and practicality of STaRFormer. We achieve notable improvements over state-of-the-art approaches. Code and data will be made available.

Diffusion models have achieved state-of-the-art results on many modalities including images, speech, and video. However, existing models are not tailored to support remote sensing data, which is widely used in important applications including environmental monitoring and crop-yield prediction. Satellite images are significantly different from natural images -- they can be multi-spectral, irregularly sampled across time -- and existing diffusion models trained on images from the Web do not support them. Furthermore, remote sensing data is inherently spatio-temporal, requiring conditional generation tasks not supported by traditional methods based on captions or images. In this paper, we present DiffusionSat, to date the largest generative foundation model trained on a collection of publicly available large, high-resolution remote sensing datasets. As text-based captions are sparsely available for satellite images, we incorporate the associated metadata such as geolocation as conditioning information. Our method produces realistic samples and can be used to solve multiple generative tasks including temporal generation, superresolution given multi-spectral inputs and in-painting. Our method outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods for satellite image generation and is the first large-scale generative foundation model for satellite imagery.

We introduce ODEFormer, the first transformer able to infer multidimensional ordinary differential equation (ODE) systems in symbolic form from the observation of a single solution trajectory. We perform extensive evaluations on two datasets: (i) the existing "Strogatz" dataset featuring two-dimensional systems; (ii) ODEBench, a collection of one- to four-dimensional systems that we carefully curated from the literature to provide a more holistic benchmark. ODEFormer consistently outperforms existing methods while displaying substantially improved robustness to noisy and irregularly sampled observations, as well as faster inference. We release our code, model and benchmark dataset publicly.

Continuous convolution has recently gained prominence due to its ability to handle irregularly sampled data and model long-term dependency. Also, the promising experimental results of using large convolutional kernels have catalyzed the development of continuous convolution since they can construct large kernels very efficiently. Leveraging neural networks, more specifically multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), is by far the most prevalent approach to implementing continuous convolution. However, there are a few drawbacks, such as high computational costs, complex hyperparameter tuning, and limited descriptive power of filters. This paper suggests an alternative approach to building a continuous convolution without neural networks, resulting in more computationally efficient and improved performance. We present self-moving point representations where weight parameters freely move, and interpolation schemes are used to implement continuous functions. When applied to construct convolutional kernels, the experimental results have shown improved performance with drop-in replacement in the existing frameworks. Due to its lightweight structure, we are first to demonstrate the effectiveness of continuous convolution in a large-scale setting, e.g., ImageNet, presenting the improvements over the prior arts. Our code is available on https://github.com/sangnekim/SMPConv

Sequential VAEs have been successfully considered for many high-dimensional time series modelling problems, with many variant models relying on discrete-time mechanisms such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs). On the other hand, continuous-time methods have recently gained attraction, especially in the context of irregularly-sampled time series, where they can better handle the data than discrete-time methods. One such class are Gaussian process variational autoencoders (GPVAEs), where the VAE prior is set as a Gaussian process (GP). However, a major limitation of GPVAEs is that it inherits the cubic computational cost as GPs, making it unattractive to practioners. In this work, we leverage the equivalent discrete state space representation of Markovian GPs to enable linear time GPVAE training via Kalman filtering and smoothing. We show on a variety of high-dimensional temporal and spatiotemporal tasks that our method performs favourably compared to existing approaches whilst being computationally highly scalable.

We present a novel deep generative semi-supervised framework for credit card fraud detection, formulated as time series classification task. As financial transaction data streams grow in scale and complexity, traditional methods often require large labeled datasets, struggle with time series of irregular sampling frequencies and varying sequence lengths. To address these challenges, we extend conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) for targeted data augmentation, integrate Bayesian inference to obtain predictive distributions and quantify uncertainty, and leverage log-signatures for robust feature encoding of transaction histories. We introduce a novel Wasserstein distance-based loss to align generated and real unlabeled samples while simultaneously maximizing classification accuracy on labeled data. Our approach is evaluated on the BankSim dataset, a widely used simulator for credit card transaction data, under varying proportions of labeled samples, demonstrating consistent improvements over benchmarks in both global statistical and domain-specific metrics. These findings highlight the effectiveness of GAN-driven semi-supervised learning with log-signatures for irregularly sampled time series and emphasize the importance of uncertainty-aware predictions.

Neural Controlled Differential Equations (NCDEs) are a state-of-the-art tool for supervised learning with irregularly sampled time series (Kidger, 2020). However, no theoretical analysis of their performance has been provided yet, and it remains unclear in particular how the irregularity of the time series affects their predictions. By merging the rich theory of controlled differential equations (CDE) and Lipschitz-based measures of the complexity of deep neural nets, we take a first step towards the theoretical understanding of NCDE. Our first result is a generalization bound for this class of predictors that depends on the regularity of the time series data. In a second time, we leverage the continuity of the flow of CDEs to provide a detailed analysis of both the sampling-induced bias and the approximation bias. Regarding this last result, we show how classical approximation results on neural nets may transfer to NCDEs. Our theoretical results are validated through a series of experiments.

Temporal data such as time series can be viewed as discretized measurements of the underlying function. To build a generative model for such data we have to model the stochastic process that governs it. We propose a solution by defining the denoising diffusion model in the function space which also allows us to naturally handle irregularly-sampled observations. The forward process gradually adds noise to functions, preserving their continuity, while the learned reverse process removes the noise and returns functions as new samples. To this end, we define suitable noise sources and introduce novel denoising and score-matching models. We show how our method can be used for multivariate probabilistic forecasting and imputation, and how our model can be interpreted as a neural process.

In static monitoring cameras, useful contextual information can stretch far beyond the few seconds typical video understanding models might see: subjects may exhibit similar behavior over multiple days, and background objects remain static. Due to power and storage constraints, sampling frequencies are low, often no faster than one frame per second, and sometimes are irregular due to the use of a motion trigger. In order to perform well in this setting, models must be robust to irregular sampling rates. In this paper we propose a method that leverages temporal context from the unlabeled frames of a novel camera to improve performance at that camera. Specifically, we propose an attention-based approach that allows our model, Context R-CNN, to index into a long term memory bank constructed on a per-camera basis and aggregate contextual features from other frames to boost object detection performance on the current frame. We apply Context R-CNN to two settings: (1) species detection using camera traps, and (2) vehicle detection in traffic cameras, showing in both settings that Context R-CNN leads to performance gains over strong baselines. Moreover, we show that increasing the contextual time horizon leads to improved results. When applied to camera trap data from the Snapshot Serengeti dataset, Context R-CNN with context from up to a month of images outperforms a single-frame baseline by 17.9% mAP, and outperforms S3D (a 3d convolution based baseline) by 11.2% mAP.

In today's digital age, conspiracies and information campaigns can emerge rapidly and erode social and democratic cohesion. While recent deep learning approaches have made progress in modeling engagement through language and propagation models, they struggle with irregularly sampled data and early trajectory assessment. We present IC-Mamba, a novel state space model that forecasts social media engagement by modeling interval-censored data with integrated temporal embeddings. Our model excels at predicting engagement patterns within the crucial first 15-30 minutes of posting (RMSE 0.118-0.143), enabling rapid assessment of content reach. By incorporating interval-censored modeling into the state space framework, IC-Mamba captures fine-grained temporal dynamics of engagement growth, achieving a 4.72% improvement over state-of-the-art across multiple engagement metrics (likes, shares, comments, and emojis). Our experiments demonstrate IC-Mamba's effectiveness in forecasting both post-level dynamics and broader narrative patterns (F1 0.508-0.751 for narrative-level predictions). The model maintains strong predictive performance across extended time horizons, successfully forecasting opinion-level engagement up to 28 days ahead using observation windows of 3-10 days. These capabilities enable earlier identification of potentially problematic content, providing crucial lead time for designing and implementing countermeasures. Code is available at: https://github.com/ltian678/ic-mamba. An interactive dashboard demonstrating our results is available at: https://ic-mamba.behavioral-ds.science.

In this article, we introduce a novel algorithm for efficient near-field synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imaging for irregular scanning geometries. With the emergence of fifth-generation (5G) millimeter-wave (mmWave) devices, near-field SAR imaging is no longer confined to laboratory environments. Recent advances in positioning technology have attracted significant interest for a diverse set of new applications in mmWave imaging. However, many use cases, such as automotive-mounted SAR imaging, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) imaging, and freehand imaging with smartphones, are constrained to irregular scanning geometries. Whereas traditional near-field SAR imaging systems and quick personnel security (QPS) scanners employ highly precise motion controllers to create ideal synthetic arrays, emerging applications, mentioned previously, inherently cannot achieve such ideal positioning. In addition, many Internet of Things (IoT) and 5G applications impose strict size and computational complexity limitations that must be considered for edge mmWave imaging technology. In this study, we propose a novel algorithm to leverage the advantages of non-cooperative SAR scanning patterns, small form-factor multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) radars, and efficient monostatic planar image reconstruction algorithms. We propose a framework to mathematically decompose arbitrary and irregular sampling geometries and a joint solution to mitigate multistatic array imaging artifacts. The proposed algorithm is validated through simulations and an empirical study of arbitrary scanning scenarios. Our algorithm achieves high-resolution and high-efficiency near-field MIMO-SAR imaging, and is an elegant solution to computationally constrained irregularly sampled imaging problems.

Methods based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used to build generative models of time-series. In addition to high computational overhead due to explicitly computing hidden states recurrence, existing ODE-based models fall short in learning sequence data with sharp transitions - common in many real-world systems - due to numerical challenges during optimization. In this work, we propose LS4, a generative model for sequences with latent variables evolving according to a state space ODE to increase modeling capacity. Inspired by recent deep state space models (S4), we achieve speedups by leveraging a convolutional representation of LS4 which bypasses the explicit evaluation of hidden states. We show that LS4 significantly outperforms previous continuous-time generative models in terms of marginal distribution, classification, and prediction scores on real-world datasets in the Monash Forecasting Repository, and is capable of modeling highly stochastic data with sharp temporal transitions. LS4 sets state-of-the-art for continuous-time latent generative models, with significant improvement of mean squared error and tighter variational lower bounds on irregularly-sampled datasets, while also being x100 faster than other baselines on long sequences.

Recent advances in the theory of Neural Operators (NOs) have enabled fast and accurate computation of the solutions to complex systems described by partial differential equations (PDEs). Despite their great success, current NO-based solutions face important challenges when dealing with spatio-temporal PDEs over long time scales. Specifically, the current theory of NOs does not present a systematic framework to perform data assimilation and efficiently correct the evolution of PDE solutions over time based on sparsely sampled noisy measurements. In this paper, we propose a learning-based state-space approach to compute the solution operators to infinite-dimensional semilinear PDEs. Exploiting the structure of semilinear PDEs and the theory of nonlinear observers in function spaces, we develop a flexible recursive method that allows for both prediction and data assimilation by combining prediction and correction operations. The proposed framework is capable of producing fast and accurate predictions over long time horizons, dealing with irregularly sampled noisy measurements to correct the solution, and benefits from the decoupling between the spatial and temporal dynamics of this class of PDEs. We show through experiments on the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky, Navier-Stokes and Korteweg-de Vries equations that the proposed model is robust to noise and can leverage arbitrary amounts of measurements to correct its prediction over a long time horizon with little computational overhead.

A complex system with cluttered observations may be a coupled mixture of multiple simple sub-systems corresponding to latent entities. Such sub-systems may hold distinct dynamics in the continuous-time domain; therein, complicated interactions between sub-systems also evolve over time. This setting is fairly common in the real world but has been less considered. In this paper, we propose a sequential learning approach under this setting by decoupling a complex system for handling irregularly sampled and cluttered sequential observations. Such decoupling brings about not only subsystems describing the dynamics of each latent entity but also a meta-system capturing the interaction between entities over time. Specifically, we argue that the meta-system evolving within a simplex is governed by projected differential equations (ProjDEs). We further analyze and provide neural-friendly projection operators in the context of Bregman divergence. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets show the advantages of our approach when facing complex and cluttered sequential data compared to the state-of-the-art.

Conventional neural architectures for sequential data present important limitations. Recurrent networks suffer from exploding and vanishing gradients, small effective memory horizons, and must be trained sequentially. Convolutional networks are unable to handle sequences of unknown size and their memory horizon must be defined a priori. In this work, we show that all these problems can be solved by formulating convolutional kernels in CNNs as continuous functions. The resulting Continuous Kernel Convolution (CKConv) allows us to model arbitrarily long sequences in a parallel manner, within a single operation, and without relying on any form of recurrence. We show that Continuous Kernel Convolutional Networks (CKCNNs) obtain state-of-the-art results in multiple datasets, e.g., permuted MNIST, and, thanks to their continuous nature, are able to handle non-uniformly sampled datasets and irregularly-sampled data natively. CKCNNs match or perform better than neural ODEs designed for these purposes in a faster and simpler manner.

Learning 3D representations that generalize well to arbitrarily oriented inputs is a challenge of practical importance in applications varying from computer vision to physics and chemistry. We propose a novel multi-resolution convolutional architecture for learning over concentric spherical feature maps, of which the single sphere representation is a special case. Our hierarchical architecture is based on alternatively learning to incorporate both intra-sphere and inter-sphere information. We show the applicability of our method for two different types of 3D inputs, mesh objects, which can be regularly sampled, and point clouds, which are irregularly distributed. We also propose an efficient mapping of point clouds to concentric spherical images, thereby bridging spherical convolutions on grids with general point clouds. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in improving state-of-the-art performance on 3D classification tasks with rotated data.

Polar slice sampling (Roberts & Rosenthal, 2002) is a Markov chain approach for approximate sampling of distributions that is difficult, if not impossible, to implement efficiently, but behaves provably well with respect to the dimension. By updating the directional and radial components of chain iterates separately, we obtain a family of samplers that mimic polar slice sampling, and yet can be implemented efficiently. Numerical experiments in a variety of settings indicate that our proposed algorithm outperforms the two most closely related approaches, elliptical slice sampling (Murray et al., 2010) and hit-and-run uniform slice sampling (MacKay, 2003). We prove the well-definedness and convergence of our methods under suitable assumptions on the target distribution.

Time series data in real-world applications such as healthcare, climate modeling, and finance are often irregular, multimodal, and messy, with varying sampling rates, asynchronous modalities, and pervasive missingness. However, existing benchmarks typically assume clean, regularly sampled, unimodal data, creating a significant gap between research and real-world deployment. We introduce Time-IMM, a dataset specifically designed to capture cause-driven irregularity in multimodal multivariate time series. Time-IMM represents nine distinct types of time series irregularity, categorized into trigger-based, constraint-based, and artifact-based mechanisms. Complementing the dataset, we introduce IMM-TSF, a benchmark library for forecasting on irregular multimodal time series, enabling asynchronous integration and realistic evaluation. IMM-TSF includes specialized fusion modules, including a timestamp-to-text fusion module and a multimodality fusion module, which support both recency-aware averaging and attention-based integration strategies. Empirical results demonstrate that explicitly modeling multimodality on irregular time series data leads to substantial gains in forecasting performance. Time-IMM and IMM-TSF provide a foundation for advancing time series analysis under real-world conditions. The dataset is publicly available at https://github.com/blacksnail789521/Time-IMM, and the benchmark library can be accessed at https://github.com/blacksnail789521/IMM-TSF. Project page: https://blacksnail789521.github.io/time-imm-project-page/

Missing values, irregularly collected samples, and multi-resolution signals commonly occur in multivariate time series data, making predictive tasks difficult. These challenges are especially prevalent in the healthcare domain, where patients' vital signs and electronic records are collected at different frequencies and have occasionally missing information due to the imperfections in equipment or patient circumstances. Researchers have handled each of these issues differently, often handling missing data through mean value imputation and then using sequence models over the multivariate signals while ignoring the different resolution of signals. We propose a unified model named Multi-resolution Flexible Irregular Time series Network (Multi-FIT). The building block for Multi-FIT is the FIT network. The FIT network creates an informative dense representation at each time step using signal information such as last observed value, time difference since the last observed time stamp and overall mean for the signal. Vertical FIT (FIT-V) is a variant of FIT which also models the relationship between different temporal signals while creating the informative dense representations for the signal. The multi-FIT model uses multiple FIT networks for sets of signals with different resolutions, further facilitating the construction of flexible representations. Our model has three main contributions: a.) it does not impute values but rather creates informative representations to provide flexibility to the model for creating task-specific representations b.) it models the relationship between different signals in the form of support signals c.) it models different resolutions in parallel before merging them for the final prediction task. The FIT, FIT-V and Multi-FIT networks improve upon the state-of-the-art models for three predictive tasks, including the forecasting of patient survival.

Health conditions among patients in intensive care units (ICUs) are monitored via electronic health records (EHRs), composed of numerical time series and lengthy clinical note sequences, both taken at irregular time intervals. Dealing with such irregularity in every modality, and integrating irregularity into multimodal representations to improve medical predictions, is a challenging problem. Our method first addresses irregularity in each single modality by (1) modeling irregular time series by dynamically incorporating hand-crafted imputation embeddings into learned interpolation embeddings via a gating mechanism, and (2) casting a series of clinical note representations as multivariate irregular time series and tackling irregularity via a time attention mechanism. We further integrate irregularity in multimodal fusion with an interleaved attention mechanism across temporal steps. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to thoroughly model irregularity in multimodalities for improving medical predictions. Our proposed methods for two medical prediction tasks consistently outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) baselines in each single modality and multimodal fusion scenarios. Specifically, we observe relative improvements of 6.5\%, 3.6\%, and 4.3\% in F1 for time series, clinical notes, and multimodal fusion, respectively. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods and the importance of considering irregularity in multimodal EHRs.

We investigate imbalanced regression with tabular data that have an imbalance ratio larger than 1,000 ("highly imbalanced"). Accurately estimating the target values of rare instances is important in applications such as forecasting the intensity of rare harmful Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events. For regression, the MSE loss does not consider the correlation between predicted and actual values. Typical inverse importance functions allow only convex functions. Uniform sampling might yield mini-batches that do not have rare instances. We propose CISIR that incorporates correlation, Monotonically Decreasing Involution (MDI) importance, and stratified sampling. Based on five datasets, our experimental results indicate that CISIR can achieve lower error and higher correlation than some recent methods. Also, adding our correlation component to other recent methods can improve their performance. Lastly, MDI importance can outperform other importance functions. Our code can be found in https://github.com/Machine-Earning/CISIR.

We consider the problem of approximating a function from L^2 by an element of a given m-dimensional space V_m, associated with some feature map varphi, using evaluations of the function at random points x_1,dots,x_n. After recalling some results on optimal weighted least-squares using independent and identically distributed points, we consider weighted least-squares using projection determinantal point processes (DPP) or volume sampling. These distributions introduce dependence between the points that promotes diversity in the selected features varphi(x_i). We first provide a generalized version of volume-rescaled sampling yielding quasi-optimality results in expectation with a number of samples n = O(mlog(m)), that means that the expected L^2 error is bounded by a constant times the best approximation error in L^2. Also, further assuming that the function is in some normed vector space H continuously embedded in L^2, we further prove that the approximation is almost surely bounded by the best approximation error measured in the H-norm. This includes the cases of functions from L^infty or reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Finally, we present an alternative strategy consisting in using independent repetitions of projection DPP (or volume sampling), yielding similar error bounds as with i.i.d. or volume sampling, but in practice with a much lower number of samples. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the different strategies.

Consider a random uniform sample of n points in a compact region A of Euclidean d-space, d geq 2, with a smooth or (when d=2) polygonal boundary. Fix k bf N. Let T_{n,k} be the threshold r at which the geometric graph on these n vertices with distance parameter r becomes k-connected. We show that if d=2 then n (pi/|A|) T_{n,1}^2 - log n is asymptotically standard Gumbel. For (d,k) neq (2,1), it is n (theta_d/|A|) T_{n,k}^d - (2-2/d) log n - (4-2k-2/d) log log n that converges in distribution to a nondegenerate limit, where theta_d is the volume of the unit ball. The limit is Gumbel with scale parameter 2 except when (d,k)=(2,2) where the limit is two component extreme value distributed. The different cases reflect the fact that boundary effects are more more important in some cases than others. We also give similar results for the largest k-nearest neighbour link U_{n,k} in the sample, and show T_{n,k}=U_{n,k} with high probability. We provide estimates on rates of convergence and give similar results for Poisson samples in A. Finally, we give similar results even for non-uniform samples, with a less explicit sequence of centring constants.

In large scale machine learning, random sampling is a popular way to approximate datasets by a small representative subset of examples. In particular, sensitivity sampling is an intensely studied technique which provides provable guarantees on the quality of approximation, while reducing the number of examples to the product of the VC dimension d and the total sensitivity mathfrak S in remarkably general settings. However, guarantees going beyond this general bound of mathfrak S d are known in perhaps only one setting, for ell_2 subspace embeddings, despite intense study of sensitivity sampling in prior work. In this work, we show the first bounds for sensitivity sampling for ell_p subspace embeddings for pneq 2 that improve over the general mathfrak S d bound, achieving a bound of roughly mathfrak S^{2/p} for 1leq p<2 and mathfrak S^{2-2/p} for 2<p<infty. For 1leq p<2, we show that this bound is tight, in the sense that there exist matrices for which mathfrak S^{2/p} samples is necessary. Furthermore, our techniques yield further new results in the study of sampling algorithms, showing that the root leverage score sampling algorithm achieves a bound of roughly d for 1leq p<2, and that a combination of leverage score and sensitivity sampling achieves an improved bound of roughly d^{2/p}mathfrak S^{2-4/p} for 2<p<infty. Our sensitivity sampling results yield the best known sample complexity for a wide class of structured matrices that have small ell_p sensitivity.

Machine learning (ML) holds great potential for accurately forecasting treatment outcomes over time, which could ultimately enable the adoption of more individualized treatment strategies in many practical applications. However, a significant challenge that has been largely overlooked by the ML literature on this topic is the presence of informative sampling in observational data. When instances are observed irregularly over time, sampling times are typically not random, but rather informative -- depending on the instance's characteristics, past outcomes, and administered treatments. In this work, we formalize informative sampling as a covariate shift problem and show that it can prohibit accurate estimation of treatment outcomes if not properly accounted for. To overcome this challenge, we present a general framework for learning treatment outcomes in the presence of informative sampling using inverse intensity-weighting, and propose a novel method, TESAR-CDE, that instantiates this framework using Neural CDEs. Using a simulation environment based on a clinical use case, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in learning under informative sampling.

We introduce infty-Diff, a generative diffusion model which directly operates on infinite resolution data. By randomly sampling subsets of coordinates during training and learning to denoise the content at those coordinates, a continuous function is learned that allows sampling at arbitrary resolutions. In contrast to other recent infinite resolution generative models, our approach operates directly on the raw data, not requiring latent vector compression for context, using hypernetworks, nor relying on discrete components. As such, our approach achieves significantly higher sample quality, as evidenced by lower FID scores, as well as being able to effectively scale to higher resolutions than the training data while retaining detail.

We present a novel approach for generating minority samples that live on low-density regions of a data manifold. Our framework is built upon diffusion models, leveraging the principle of guided sampling that incorporates an arbitrary energy-based guidance during inference time. The key defining feature of our sampler lies in its self-contained nature, \ie, implementable solely with a pretrained model. This distinguishes our sampler from existing techniques that require expensive additional components (like external classifiers) for minority generation. Specifically, we first estimate the likelihood of features within an intermediate latent sample by evaluating a reconstruction loss w.r.t. its posterior mean. The generation then proceeds with the minimization of the estimated likelihood, thereby encouraging the emergence of minority features in the latent samples of subsequent timesteps. To further improve the performance of our sampler, we provide several time-scheduling techniques that properly manage the influence of guidance over inference steps. Experiments on benchmark real datasets demonstrate that our approach can greatly improve the capability of creating realistic low-likelihood minority instances over the existing techniques without the reliance on costly additional elements. Code is available at https://github.com/soobin-um/sg-minority.

Dataset distillation aims to synthesize small datasets with little information loss from original large-scale ones for reducing storage and training costs. Recent state-of-the-art methods mainly constrain the sample synthesis process by matching synthetic images and the original ones regarding gradients, embedding distributions, or training trajectories. Although there are various matching objectives, currently the strategy for selecting original images is limited to naive random sampling. We argue that random sampling overlooks the evenness of the selected sample distribution, which may result in noisy or biased matching targets. Besides, the sample diversity is also not constrained by random sampling. These factors together lead to optimization instability in the distilling process and degrade the training efficiency. Accordingly, we propose a novel matching strategy named as Dataset distillation by REpresentAtive Matching (DREAM), where only representative original images are selected for matching. DREAM is able to be easily plugged into popular dataset distillation frameworks and reduce the distilling iterations by more than 8 times without performance drop. Given sufficient training time, DREAM further provides significant improvements and achieves state-of-the-art performances.

Decoding methods for large language models often trade-off between diversity of outputs and parallelism of computation. Methods such as beam search and Gumbel top-k sampling can guarantee a different output for each element of the beam, but are not easy to parallelize. Alternatively, methods such as temperature sampling and its modifications (top-k sampling, nucleus sampling, typical decoding, and others), are embarrassingly parallel, but have no guarantees about duplicate samples. We present a framework for sampling according to an arithmetic code book implicitly defined by a large language model, compatible with common sampling variations, with provable beam diversity under certain conditions, as well as being embarrassingly parallel and providing unbiased and consistent expectations from the original model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on WMT machine translation, more than halving the standard deviation when estimating expected BLEU score reward, and closing the BLEU score gap between independent sampling and beam search by up to 63%.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

Social scientists are now using large language models to create "silicon samples" - synthetic datasets intended to stand in for human respondents, aimed at revolutionising human subjects research. However, there are many analytic choices which must be made to produce these samples. Though many of these choices are defensible, their impact on sample quality is poorly understood. I map out these analytic choices and demonstrate how a very small number of decisions can dramatically change the correspondence between silicon samples and human data. Configurations (N = 252) varied substantially in their capacity to estimate (i) rank ordering of participants, (ii) response distributions, and (iii) between-scale correlations. Most critically, configurations were not consistent in quality: those that performed well on one dimension often performed poorly on another, implying that there is no "one-size-fits-all" configuration that optimises the accuracy of these samples. I call for greater attention to the threat of analytic flexibility in using silicon samples.

Long samples of text from neural language models can be of poor quality. Truncation sampling algorithms--like top-p or top-k -- address this by setting some words' probabilities to zero at each step. This work provides framing for the aim of truncation, and an improved algorithm for that aim. We propose thinking of a neural language model as a mixture of a true distribution and a smoothing distribution that avoids infinite perplexity. In this light, truncation algorithms aim to perform desmoothing, estimating a subset of the support of the true distribution. Finding a good subset is crucial: we show that top-p unnecessarily truncates high-probability words, for example causing it to truncate all words but Trump for a document that starts with Donald. We introduce eta-sampling, which truncates words below an entropy-dependent probability threshold. Compared to previous algorithms, eta-sampling generates more plausible long English documents according to humans, is better at breaking out of repetition, and behaves more reasonably on a battery of test distributions.

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) have been successful in processing data signals that are uniformly sampled in the spatial domain (e.g., images). However, most data signals do not natively exist on a grid, and in the process of being sampled onto a uniform physical grid suffer significant aliasing error and information loss. Moreover, signals can exist in different topological structures as, for example, points, lines, surfaces and volumes. It has been challenging to analyze signals with mixed topologies (for example, point cloud with surface mesh). To this end, we develop mathematical formulations for Non-Uniform Fourier Transforms (NUFT) to directly, and optimally, sample nonuniform data signals of different topologies defined on a simplex mesh into the spectral domain with no spatial sampling error. The spectral transform is performed in the Euclidean space, which removes the translation ambiguity from works on the graph spectrum. Our representation has four distinct advantages: (1) the process causes no spatial sampling error during the initial sampling, (2) the generality of this approach provides a unified framework for using CNNs to analyze signals of mixed topologies, (3) it allows us to leverage state-of-the-art backbone CNN architectures for effective learning without having to design a particular architecture for a particular data structure in an ad-hoc fashion, and (4) the representation allows weighted meshes where each element has a different weight (i.e., texture) indicating local properties. We achieve results on par with the state-of-the-art for the 3D shape retrieval task, and a new state-of-the-art for the point cloud to surface reconstruction task.

In statistics, independent, identically distributed random samples do not carry a natural ordering, and their statistics are typically invariant with respect to permutations of their order. Thus, an n-sample in a space M can be considered as an element of the quotient space of M^n modulo the permutation group. The present paper takes this definition of sample space and the related concept of orbit types as a starting point for developing a geometric perspective on statistics. We aim at deriving a general mathematical setting for studying the behavior of empirical and population means in spaces ranging from smooth Riemannian manifolds to general stratified spaces. We fully describe the orbifold and path-metric structure of the sample space when M is a manifold or path-metric space, respectively. These results are non-trivial even when M is Euclidean. We show that the infinite sample space exists in a Gromov-Hausdorff type sense and coincides with the Wasserstein space of probability distributions on M. We exhibit Fr\'echet means and k-means as metric projections onto 1-skeleta or k-skeleta in Wasserstein space, and we define a new and more general notion of polymeans. This geometric characterization via metric projections applies equally to sample and population means, and we use it to establish asymptotic properties of polymeans such as consistency and asymptotic normality.

Large language models (LLMs) are often equipped with multi-sample decoding strategies. An LLM implicitly defines an arithmetic code book, facilitating efficient and embarrassingly parallelizable arithmetic sampling to produce multiple samples using quasi-random codes. Traditional text generation methods, such as beam search and sampling-based techniques, have notable limitations: they lack parallelizability or diversity of sampled sequences. This study explores the potential of arithmetic sampling, contrasting it with ancestral sampling across two decoding tasks that employ multi-sample inference: chain-of-thought reasoning with self-consistency and machine translation with minimum Bayes risk decoding. Our results demonstrate that arithmetic sampling produces more diverse samples, significantly improving reasoning and translation performance as the sample size increases. We observe a 3text{-5%} point increase in accuracy on the GSM8K dataset and a 0.45text{-0.89%} point increment in COMET score for WMT19 tasks using arithmetic sampling without any significant computational overhead.

Exposure bias poses a common challenge in numerous natural language processing tasks, particularly in the dialog generation. In response to this issue, researchers have devised various techniques, among which scheduled sampling has proven to be an effective method for mitigating exposure bias. However, the existing state-of-the-art scheduled sampling methods solely consider the current sampling words' quality for threshold truncation sampling, which overlooks the importance of sentence-level information and the method of threshold truncation warrants further discussion. In this paper, we propose a bilevel scheduled sampling model that takes the sentence-level information into account and incorporates it with word-level quality. To enhance sampling diversity and improve the model's adaptability, we propose a smooth function that maps the combined result of sentence-level and word-level information to an appropriate range, and employ probabilistic sampling based on the mapped values instead of threshold truncation. Experiments conducted on the DailyDialog and PersonaChat datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methods, which significantly alleviate the exposure bias problem and outperform state-of-the-art scheduled sampling methods.

Given a sample of size N, it is often useful to select a subsample of smaller size n<N to be used for statistical estimation or learning. Such a data selection step is useful to reduce the requirements of data labeling and the computational complexity of learning. We assume to be given N unlabeled samples {{boldsymbol x}_i}_{ile N}, and to be given access to a `surrogate model' that can predict labels y_i better than random guessing. Our goal is to select a subset of the samples, to be denoted by {{boldsymbol x}_i}_{iin G}, of size |G|=n<N. We then acquire labels for this set and we use them to train a model via regularized empirical risk minimization. By using a mixture of numerical experiments on real and synthetic data, and mathematical derivations under low- and high- dimensional asymptotics, we show that: (i)~Data selection can be very effective, in particular beating training on the full sample in some cases; (ii)~Certain popular choices in data selection methods (e.g. unbiased reweighted subsampling, or influence function-based subsampling) can be substantially suboptimal.

We consider the problem of estimating the optimal transport map between two probability distributions, P and Q in mathbb R^d, on the basis of i.i.d. samples. All existing statistical analyses of this problem require the assumption that the transport map is Lipschitz, a strong requirement that, in particular, excludes any examples where the transport map is discontinuous. As a first step towards developing estimation procedures for discontinuous maps, we consider the important special case where the data distribution Q is a discrete measure supported on a finite number of points in mathbb R^d. We study a computationally efficient estimator initially proposed by Pooladian and Niles-Weed (2021), based on entropic optimal transport, and show in the semi-discrete setting that it converges at the minimax-optimal rate n^{-1/2}, independent of dimension. Other standard map estimation techniques both lack finite-sample guarantees in this setting and provably suffer from the curse of dimensionality. We confirm these results in numerical experiments, and provide experiments for other settings, not covered by our theory, which indicate that the entropic estimator is a promising methodology for other discontinuous transport map estimation problems.

In this article, we study the consistency of the template estimation with the Fr\'echet mean in quotient spaces. The Fr\'echet mean in quotient spaces is often used when the observations are deformed or transformed by a group action. We show that in most cases this estimator is actually inconsistent. We exhibit a sufficient condition for this inconsistency, which amounts to the folding of the distribution of the noisy template when it is projected to the quotient space. This condition appears to be fulfilled as soon as the support of the noise is large enough. To quantify this inconsistency we provide lower and upper bounds of the bias as a function of the variability (the noise level). This shows that the consistency bias cannot be neglected when the variability increases.

Recent surge in large-scale generative models has spurred the development of vast fields in computer vision. In particular, text-to-image diffusion models have garnered widespread adoption across diverse domain due to their potential for high-fidelity image generation. Nonetheless, existing large-scale diffusion models are confined to generate images of up to 1K resolution, which is far from meeting the demands of contemporary commercial applications. Directly sampling higher-resolution images often yields results marred by artifacts such as object repetition and distorted shapes. Addressing the aforementioned issues typically necessitates training or fine-tuning models on higher resolution datasets. However, this undertaking poses a formidable challenge due to the difficulty in collecting large-scale high-resolution contents and substantial computational resources. While several preceding works have proposed alternatives, they often fail to produce convincing results. In this work, we probe the generative ability of diffusion models at higher resolution beyond its original capability and propose a novel progressive approach that fully utilizes generated low-resolution image to guide the generation of higher resolution image. Our method obviates the need for additional training or fine-tuning which significantly lowers the burden of computational costs. Extensive experiments and results validate the efficiency and efficacy of our method. Project page: https://yhyun225.github.io/DiffuseHigh/

Periodic signals play an important role in daily lives. Although conventional sequential models have shown remarkable success in various fields, they still come short in modeling periodicity; they either collapse, diverge or ignore details. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework inspired by Fourier series to generate periodic signals. We first decompose the given signals into multiple sines and cosines and then conditionally generate periodic signals with the output components. We have shown our model efficacy on three tasks: reconstruction, imputation and conditional generation. Our model outperforms baselines in all tasks and shows more stable and refined results.

Irregular sampling intervals and missing values in real-world time series data present challenges for conventional methods that assume consistent intervals and complete data. Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs) offer an alternative approach, utilizing neural networks combined with ODE solvers to learn continuous latent representations through parameterized vector fields. Neural Stochastic Differential Equations (Neural SDEs) extend Neural ODEs by incorporating a diffusion term, although this addition is not trivial, particularly when addressing irregular intervals and missing values. Consequently, careful design of drift and diffusion functions is crucial for maintaining stability and enhancing performance, while incautious choices can result in adverse properties such as the absence of strong solutions, stochastic destabilization, or unstable Euler discretizations, significantly affecting Neural SDEs' performance. In this study, we propose three stable classes of Neural SDEs: Langevin-type SDE, Linear Noise SDE, and Geometric SDE. Then, we rigorously demonstrate their robustness in maintaining excellent performance under distribution shift, while effectively preventing overfitting. To assess the effectiveness of our approach, we conduct extensive experiments on four benchmark datasets for interpolation, forecasting, and classification tasks, and analyze the robustness of our methods with 30 public datasets under different missing rates. Our results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method in handling real-world irregular time series data.

We present speculative sampling, an algorithm for accelerating transformer decoding by enabling the generation of multiple tokens from each transformer call. Our algorithm relies on the observation that the latency of parallel scoring of short continuations, generated by a faster but less powerful draft model, is comparable to that of sampling a single token from the larger target model. This is combined with a novel modified rejection sampling scheme which preserves the distribution of the target model within hardware numerics. We benchmark speculative sampling with Chinchilla, a 70 billion parameter language model, achieving a 2-2.5x decoding speedup in a distributed setup, without compromising the sample quality or making modifications to the model itself.

As industrial applications are increasingly automated by machine learning models, enforcing personal data ownership and intellectual property rights requires tracing training data back to their rightful owners. Membership inference algorithms approach this problem by using statistical techniques to discern whether a target sample was included in a model's training set. However, existing methods only utilize the unaltered target sample or simple augmentations of the target to compute statistics. Such a sparse sampling of the model's behavior carries little information, leading to poor inference capabilities. In this work, we use adversarial tools to directly optimize for queries that are discriminative and diverse. Our improvements achieve significantly more accurate membership inference than existing methods, especially in offline scenarios and in the low false-positive regime which is critical in legal settings. Code is available at https://github.com/YuxinWenRick/canary-in-a-coalmine.

We investigate the use of a stratified sampling approach for LIME Image, a popular model-agnostic explainable AI method for computer vision tasks, in order to reduce the artifacts generated by typical Monte Carlo sampling. Such artifacts are due to the undersampling of the dependent variable in the synthetic neighborhood around the image being explained, which may result in inadequate explanations due to the impossibility of fitting a linear regressor on the sampled data. We then highlight a connection with the Shapley theory, where similar arguments about undersampling and sample relevance were suggested in the past. We derive all the formulas and adjustment factors required for an unbiased stratified sampling estimator. Experiments show the efficacy of the proposed approach.

In reinforcement learning, agents collect state information and rewards through environmental interactions, essential for policy refinement. This process is notably time-consuming, especially in complex robotic simulations and real-world applications. Traditional algorithms usually re-engage with the environment after processing a single batch of samples, thereby failing to fully capitalize on historical data. However, frequently observed states, with reliable value estimates, require minimal updates; in contrast, rare observed states necessitate more intensive updates for achieving accurate value estimations. To address uneven sample utilization, we propose Novelty-guided Sample Reuse (NSR). NSR provides extra updates for infrequent, novel states and skips additional updates for frequent states, maximizing sample use before interacting with the environment again. Our experiments show that NSR improves the convergence rate and success rate of algorithms without significantly increasing time consumption. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/ppksigs/NSR-DDPG-HER.

Large language models show great potential in generating and optimizing code. Widely used sampling methods such as Nucleus Sampling increase the diversity of generation but often produce repeated samples for low temperatures and incoherent samples for high temperatures. Furthermore, the temperature coefficient has to be tuned for each task, limiting its usability. We present Priority Sampling, a simple and deterministic sampling technique that produces unique samples ordered by the model's confidence. Each new sample expands the unexpanded token with the highest probability in the augmented search tree. Additionally, Priority Sampling supports generation based on regular expression that provides a controllable and structured exploration process. Priority Sampling outperforms Nucleus Sampling for any number of samples, boosting the performance of the original model from 2.87% to 5% improvement over -Oz. Moreover, it outperforms the autotuner used for the generation of labels for the training of the original model in just 30 samples.

Colloquially speaking, image generation models based upon diffusion processes are frequently said to exhibit "hallucinations," samples that could never occur in the training data. But where do such hallucinations come from? In this paper, we study a particular failure mode in diffusion models, which we term mode interpolation. Specifically, we find that diffusion models smoothly "interpolate" between nearby data modes in the training set, to generate samples that are completely outside the support of the original training distribution; this phenomenon leads diffusion models to generate artifacts that never existed in real data (i.e., hallucinations). We systematically study the reasons for, and the manifestation of this phenomenon. Through experiments on 1D and 2D Gaussians, we show how a discontinuous loss landscape in the diffusion model's decoder leads to a region where any smooth approximation will cause such hallucinations. Through experiments on artificial datasets with various shapes, we show how hallucination leads to the generation of combinations of shapes that never existed. Finally, we show that diffusion models in fact know when they go out of support and hallucinate. This is captured by the high variance in the trajectory of the generated sample towards the final few backward sampling process. Using a simple metric to capture this variance, we can remove over 95% of hallucinations at generation time while retaining 96% of in-support samples. We conclude our exploration by showing the implications of such hallucination (and its removal) on the collapse (and stabilization) of recursive training on synthetic data with experiments on MNIST and 2D Gaussians dataset. We release our code at https://github.com/locuslab/diffusion-model-hallucination.

We explore the problem of generating minority samples using diffusion models. The minority samples are instances that lie on low-density regions of a data manifold. Generating a sufficient number of such minority instances is important, since they often contain some unique attributes of the data. However, the conventional generation process of the diffusion models mostly yields majority samples (that lie on high-density regions of the manifold) due to their high likelihoods, making themselves ineffective and time-consuming for the minority generating task. In this work, we present a novel framework that can make the generation process of the diffusion models focus on the minority samples. We first highlight that Tweedie's denoising formula yields favorable results for majority samples. The observation motivates us to introduce a metric that describes the uniqueness of a given sample. To address the inherent preference of the diffusion models w.r.t. the majority samples, we further develop minority guidance, a sampling technique that can guide the generation process toward regions with desired likelihood levels. Experiments on benchmark real datasets demonstrate that our minority guidance can greatly improve the capability of generating high-quality minority samples over existing generative samplers. We showcase that the performance benefit of our framework persists even in demanding real-world scenarios such as medical imaging, further underscoring the practical significance of our work. Code is available at https://github.com/soobin-um/minority-guidance.

We introduce a theoretical framework for sampling from unnormalized densities based on a smoothing scheme that uses an isotropic Gaussian kernel with a single fixed noise scale. We prove one can decompose sampling from a density (minimal assumptions made on the density) into a sequence of sampling from log-concave conditional densities via accumulation of noisy measurements with equal noise levels. Our construction is unique in that it keeps track of a history of samples, making it non-Markovian as a whole, but it is lightweight algorithmically as the history only shows up in the form of a running empirical mean of samples. Our sampling algorithm generalizes walk-jump sampling (Saremi & Hyv\"arinen, 2019). The "walk" phase becomes a (non-Markovian) chain of (log-concave) Markov chains. The "jump" from the accumulated measurements is obtained by empirical Bayes. We study our sampling algorithm quantitatively using the 2-Wasserstein metric and compare it with various Langevin MCMC algorithms. We also report a remarkable capacity of our algorithm to "tunnel" between modes of a distribution.

FSampler is a training free, sampler agnostic execution layer that accelerates diffusion sampling by reducing the number of function evaluations (NFE). FSampler maintains a short history of denoising signals (epsilon) from recent real model calls and extrapolates the next epsilon using finite difference predictors at second order, third order, or fourth order, falling back to lower order when history is insufficient. On selected steps the predicted epsilon substitutes the model call while keeping each sampler's update rule unchanged. Predicted epsilons are validated for finiteness and magnitude; a learning stabilizer rescales predictions on skipped steps to correct drift, and an optional gradient estimation stabilizer compensates local curvature. Protected windows, periodic anchors, and a cap on consecutive skips bound deviation over the trajectory. Operating at the sampler level, FSampler integrates with Euler/DDIM, DPM++ 2M/2S, LMS/AB2, and RES family exponential multistep methods and drops into standard workflows. FLUX.1 dev, Qwen Image, and Wan 2.2, FSampler reduces time by 8 to 22% and model calls by 15 to 25% at high fidelity (Structural Similarity Index (SSIM) 0.95 to 0.99), without altering sampler formulas. With an aggressive adaptive gate, reductions can reach 45 to 50% fewer model calls at lower fidelity (SSIM 0.73 to 0.74).

With local differential privacy (LDP), users can privatize their data and thus guarantee privacy properties before transmitting it to the server (a.k.a. the aggregator). One primary objective of LDP is frequency (or histogram) estimation, in which the aggregator estimates the number of users for each possible value. In practice, when a study with rich content on a population is desired, the interest is in the multiple attributes of the population, that is to say, in multidimensional data (d geq 2). However, contrary to the problem of frequency estimation of a single attribute (the majority of the works), the multidimensional aspect imposes to pay particular attention to the privacy budget. This one can indeed grow extremely quickly due to the composition theorem. To the authors' knowledge, two solutions seem to stand out for this task: 1) splitting the privacy budget for each attribute, i.e., send each value with fracε{d}-LDP (Spl), and 2) random sampling a single attribute and spend all the privacy budget to send it with ε-LDP (Smp). Although Smp adds additional sampling error, it has proven to provide higher data utility than the former Spl solution. However, we argue that aggregators (who are also seen as attackers) are aware of the sampled attribute and its LDP value, which is protected by a "less strict" e^ε probability bound (rather than e^{ε/d}). This way, we propose a solution named Random Sampling plus Fake Data (RS+FD), which allows creating uncertainty over the sampled attribute by generating fake data for each non-sampled attribute; RS+FD further benefits from amplification by sampling. We theoretically and experimentally validate our proposed solution on both synthetic and real-world datasets to show that RS+FD achieves nearly the same or better utility than the state-of-the-art Smp solution.

Recent work has shown how denoising and contractive autoencoders implicitly capture the structure of the data-generating density, in the case where the corruption noise is Gaussian, the reconstruction error is the squared error, and the data is continuous-valued. This has led to various proposals for sampling from this implicitly learned density function, using Langevin and Metropolis-Hastings MCMC. However, it remained unclear how to connect the training procedure of regularized auto-encoders to the implicit estimation of the underlying data-generating distribution when the data are discrete, or using other forms of corruption process and reconstruction errors. Another issue is the mathematical justification which is only valid in the limit of small corruption noise. We propose here a different attack on the problem, which deals with all these issues: arbitrary (but noisy enough) corruption, arbitrary reconstruction loss (seen as a log-likelihood), handling both discrete and continuous-valued variables, and removing the bias due to non-infinitesimal corruption noise (or non-infinitesimal contractive penalty).

The quality of generative models depends on the quality of the data they are trained on. Creating large-scale, high-quality datasets is often expensive and sometimes impossible, e.g. in certain scientific applications where there is no access to clean data due to physical or instrumentation constraints. Ambient Diffusion and related frameworks train diffusion models with solely corrupted data (which are usually cheaper to acquire) but ambient models significantly underperform models trained on clean data. We study this phenomenon at scale by training more than 80 models on data with different corruption levels across three datasets ranging from 30,000 to approx 1.3M samples. We show that it is impossible, at these sample sizes, to match the performance of models trained on clean data when only training on noisy data. Yet, a combination of a small set of clean data (e.g.~10% of the total dataset) and a large set of highly noisy data suffices to reach the performance of models trained solely on similar-size datasets of clean data, and in particular to achieve near state-of-the-art performance. We provide theoretical evidence for our findings by developing novel sample complexity bounds for learning from Gaussian Mixtures with heterogeneous variances. Our theoretical model suggests that, for large enough datasets, the effective marginal utility of a noisy sample is exponentially worse than that of a clean sample. Providing a small set of clean samples can significantly reduce the sample size requirements for noisy data, as we also observe in our experiments.

Ocean scientists have been collecting visual data to study marine organisms for decades. These images and videos are extremely valuable both for basic science and environmental monitoring tasks. There are tools for automatically processing these data, but none that are capable of handling the extreme variability in sample populations, image quality, and habitat characteristics that are common in visual sampling of the ocean. Such distribution shifts can occur over very short physical distances and in narrow time windows. Creating models that are able to recognize when an image or video sequence contains a new organism, an unusual collection of animals, or is otherwise out-of-sample is critical to fully leverage visual data in the ocean. The FathomNet2023 competition dataset presents a realistic scenario where the set of animals in the target data differs from the training data. The challenge is both to identify the organisms in a target image and assess whether it is out-of-sample.

While increasing training compute has significantly improved the performance of large language models (LLMs), similar gains have not been observed when scaling inference compute. We hypothesize that the primary issue lies in the uniformity of LLM outputs, which leads to inefficient sampling as models repeatedly generate similar but inaccurate responses. Motivated by an intriguing relationship between solution accuracy and response diversity, we propose DivSampling -- a novel and versatile sampling technique designed to enhance the diversity of candidate solutions by introducing prompt perturbations.DivSampling incorporates two categories of perturbations: task-agnostic approaches, which are general and not tailored to any specific task, and task-specific approaches, which are customized based on task content. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates that, under mild assumptions, the error rates of responses generated from diverse prompts are significantly lower compared to those produced by stationary prompts. Comprehensive evaluations across various tasks -- including reasoning, mathematics, and code generation -- highlight the effectiveness of DivSampling in improving solution accuracy. This scalable and efficient approach offers a new perspective on optimizing test-time inference, addressing limitations in current sampling strategies.

Experience replay is a key component in reinforcement learning for stabilizing learning and improving sample efficiency. Its typical implementation samples transitions with replacement from a replay buffer. In contrast, in supervised learning with a fixed dataset, it is a common practice to shuffle the dataset every epoch and consume data sequentially, which is called random reshuffling (RR). RR enjoys theoretically better convergence properties and has been shown to outperform with-replacement sampling empirically. To leverage the benefits of RR in reinforcement learning, we propose sampling methods that extend RR to experience replay, both in uniform and prioritized settings. We evaluate our sampling methods on Atari benchmarks, demonstrating their effectiveness in deep reinforcement learning.

In this paper, we find a sample complexity bound for learning a simplex from noisy samples. Assume a dataset of size n is given which includes i.i.d. samples drawn from a uniform distribution over an unknown simplex in R^K, where samples are assumed to be corrupted by a multi-variate additive Gaussian noise of an arbitrary magnitude. We prove the existence of an algorithm that with high probability outputs a simplex having a ell_2 distance of at most varepsilon from the true simplex (for any varepsilon>0). Also, we theoretically show that in order to achieve this bound, it is sufficient to have ngeleft(K^2/varepsilon^2right)e^{Omegaleft(K/SNR^2right)} samples, where SNR stands for the signal-to-noise ratio. This result solves an important open problem and shows as long as SNRgeOmegaleft(K^{1/2}right), the sample complexity of the noisy regime has the same order to that of the noiseless case. Our proofs are a combination of the so-called sample compression technique in ashtiani2018nearly, mathematical tools from high-dimensional geometry, and Fourier analysis. In particular, we have proposed a general Fourier-based technique for recovery of a more general class of distribution families from additive Gaussian noise, which can be further used in a variety of other related problems.

We present a straightforward statistical test to detect certain violations of the assumption that the data are Independent and Identically Distributed (IID). The specific form of violation considered is common across real-world applications: whether the examples are ordered in the dataset such that almost adjacent examples tend to have more similar feature values (e.g. due to distributional drift, or attractive interactions between datapoints). Based on a k-Nearest Neighbors estimate, our approach can be used to audit any multivariate numeric data as well as other data types (image, text, audio, etc.) that can be numerically represented, perhaps with model embeddings. Compared with existing methods to detect drift or auto-correlation, our approach is both applicable to more types of data and also able to detect a wider variety of IID violations in practice. Code: https://github.com/cleanlab/cleanlab

RANSAC-based algorithms are the standard techniques for robust estimation in computer vision. These algorithms are iterative and computationally expensive; they alternate between random sampling of data, computing hypotheses, and running inlier counting. Many authors tried different approaches to improve efficiency. One of the major improvements is having a guided sampling, letting the RANSAC cycle stop sooner. This paper presents a new adaptive sampling process for RANSAC. Previous methods either assume no prior information about the inlier/outlier classification of data points or use some previously computed scores in the sampling. In this paper, we derive a dynamic Bayesian network that updates individual data points' inlier scores while iterating RANSAC. At each iteration, we apply weighted sampling using the updated scores. Our method works with or without prior data point scorings. In addition, we use the updated inlier/outlier scoring for deriving a new stopping criterion for the RANSAC loop. We test our method in multiple real-world datasets for several applications and obtain state-of-the-art results. Our method outperforms the baselines in accuracy while needing less computational time.

Large language models (LLMs), despite their impressive performance across a wide range of tasks, often struggle to balance two competing objectives in open-ended text generation: fostering diversity and creativity while preserving logical coherence. Existing truncated sampling techniques, including temperature scaling, top-\p (nucleus) sampling, and min-\p sampling, aim to manage this trade-off. However, they exhibit limitations, particularly in the effective incorporation of the confidence of the model into the corresponding sampling strategy. For example, min-\p sampling relies on a single top token as a heuristic for confidence, eventually underutilizing the information of the probability distribution. Toward effective incorporation of the confidence of the model, in this paper, we present **top-H** decoding. We first establish the theoretical foundation of the interplay between creativity and coherence in truncated sampling by formulating an **entropy-constrained minimum divergence** problem. We then prove this minimization problem to be equivalent to an **entropy-constrained mass maximization** (ECMM) problem, which is NP-hard. Finally, we present top-H decoding, a computationally efficient greedy algorithm to solve the ECMM problem. Extensive empirical evaluations demonstrate that top-H outperforms the state-of-the-art (SoTA) alternative of min-\p sampling by up to **25.63%** on creative writing benchmarks, while maintaining robustness on question-answering datasets such as GPQA, GSM8K, and MT-Bench. Additionally, an *LLM-as-judge* evaluation confirms that top-H indeed produces coherent outputs even at higher temperatures, where creativity is especially critical. In summary, top-H advances SoTA in open-ended text generation and can be *easily integrated* into creative writing applications. The code is available at https://github.com/ErfanBaghaei/Top-H-Decoding.

Masked diffusion models (MDMs) have emerged as a popular research topic for generative modeling of discrete data, thanks to their superior performance over other discrete diffusion models, and are rivaling the auto-regressive models (ARMs) for language modeling tasks. The recent effort in simplifying the masked diffusion framework further leads to alignment with continuous-space diffusion models and more principled training and sampling recipes. In this paper, however, we reveal that both training and sampling of MDMs are theoretically free from the time variable, arguably the key signature of diffusion models, and are instead equivalent to masked models. The connection on the sampling aspect is drawn by our proposed first-hitting sampler (FHS). Specifically, we show that the FHS is theoretically equivalent to MDMs' original generation process while significantly alleviating the time-consuming categorical sampling and achieving a 20times speedup. In addition, our investigation raises doubts about whether MDMs can truly beat ARMs. We identify, for the first time, an underlying numerical issue, even with the commonly used 32-bit floating-point precision, which results in inaccurate categorical sampling. We show that the numerical issue lowers the effective temperature both theoretically and empirically, and the resulting decrease in token diversity makes previous evaluations, which assess the generation quality solely through the incomplete generative perplexity metric, somewhat unfair.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have achieved impressive success in high-resolution image synthesis, especially in recent large-scale text-to-image generation applications. An essential technique for improving the sample quality of DPMs is guided sampling, which usually needs a large guidance scale to obtain the best sample quality. The commonly-used fast sampler for guided sampling is DDIM, a first-order diffusion ODE solver that generally needs 100 to 250 steps for high-quality samples. Although recent works propose dedicated high-order solvers and achieve a further speedup for sampling without guidance, their effectiveness for guided sampling has not been well-tested before. In this work, we demonstrate that previous high-order fast samplers suffer from instability issues, and they even become slower than DDIM when the guidance scale grows large. To further speed up guided sampling, we propose DPM-Solver++, a high-order solver for the guided sampling of DPMs. DPM-Solver++ solves the diffusion ODE with the data prediction model and adopts thresholding methods to keep the solution matches training data distribution. We further propose a multistep variant of DPM-Solver++ to address the instability issue by reducing the effective step size. Experiments show that DPM-Solver++ can generate high-quality samples within only 15 to 20 steps for guided sampling by pixel-space and latent-space DPMs.

Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models have shown an impressive generation quality, although their long sampling chain leads to high computational costs. In this paper, we observe that a long sampling chain also leads to an error accumulation phenomenon, which is similar to the exposure bias problem in autoregressive text generation. Specifically, we note that there is a discrepancy between training and testing, since the former is conditioned on the ground truth samples, while the latter is conditioned on the previously generated results. To alleviate this problem, we propose a very simple but effective training regularization, consisting in perturbing the ground truth samples to simulate the inference time prediction errors. We empirically show that, without affecting the recall and precision, the proposed input perturbation leads to a significant improvement in the sample quality while reducing both the training and the inference times. For instance, on CelebA 64times64, we achieve a new state-of-the-art FID score of 1.27, while saving 37.5% of the training time. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/forever208/DDPM-IP

An approach to the construction of classifiers from imbalanced datasets is described. A dataset is imbalanced if the classification categories are not approximately equally represented. Often real-world data sets are predominately composed of "normal" examples with only a small percentage of "abnormal" or "interesting" examples. It is also the case that the cost of misclassifying an abnormal (interesting) example as a normal example is often much higher than the cost of the reverse error. Under-sampling of the majority (normal) class has been proposed as a good means of increasing the sensitivity of a classifier to the minority class. This paper shows that a combination of our method of over-sampling the minority (abnormal) class and under-sampling the majority (normal) class can achieve better classifier performance (in ROC space) than only under-sampling the majority class. This paper also shows that a combination of our method of over-sampling the minority class and under-sampling the majority class can achieve better classifier performance (in ROC space) than varying the loss ratios in Ripper or class priors in Naive Bayes. Our method of over-sampling the minority class involves creating synthetic minority class examples. Experiments are performed using C4.5, Ripper and a Naive Bayes classifier. The method is evaluated using the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) and the ROC convex hull strategy.

We initiate the study of proper losses for evaluating generative models in the discrete setting. Unlike traditional proper losses, we treat both the generative model and the target distribution as black-boxes, only assuming ability to draw i.i.d. samples. We define a loss to be black-box proper if the generative distribution that minimizes expected loss is equal to the target distribution. Using techniques from statistical estimation theory, we give a general construction and characterization of black-box proper losses: they must take a polynomial form, and the number of draws from the model and target distribution must exceed the degree of the polynomial. The characterization rules out a loss whose expectation is the cross-entropy between the target distribution and the model. By extending the construction to arbitrary sampling schemes such as Poisson sampling, however, we show that one can construct such a loss.

The increasing adoption of econometric and machine-learning approaches by empirical researchers has led to a widespread use of one data collection method: web scraping. Web scraping refers to the use of automated computer programs to access websites and download their content. The key argument of this paper is that na\"ive web scraping procedures can lead to sampling bias in the collected data. This article describes three sources of sampling bias in web-scraped data. More specifically, sampling bias emerges from web content being volatile (i.e., being subject to change), personalized (i.e., presented in response to request characteristics), and unindexed (i.e., abundance of a population register). In a series of examples, I illustrate the prevalence and magnitude of sampling bias. To support researchers and reviewers, this paper provides recommendations on anticipating, detecting, and overcoming sampling bias in web-scraped data.

We revisit the well-studied problem of approximating a matrix product, A^TB, based on small space sketches S(A) and S(B) of A in R^{n times d} and Bin R^{n times m}. We are interested in the setting where the sketches must be computed independently of each other, except for the use of a shared random seed. We prove that, when A and B are sparse, methods based on coordinated random sampling can outperform classical linear sketching approaches, like Johnson-Lindenstrauss Projection or CountSketch. For example, to obtain Frobenius norm error epsilon|A|_F|B|_F, coordinated sampling requires sketches of size O(s/epsilon^2) when A and B have at most s leq d,m non-zeros per row. In contrast, linear sketching leads to sketches of size O(d/epsilon^2) and O(m/epsilon^2) for A and B. We empirically evaluate our approach on two applications: 1) distributed linear regression in databases, a problem motivated by tasks like dataset discovery and augmentation, and 2) approximating attention matrices in transformer-based language models. In both cases, our sampling algorithms yield an order of magnitude improvement over linear sketching.

Score distillation sampling (SDS) and its variants have greatly boosted the development of text-to-3D generation, but are vulnerable to geometry collapse and poor textures yet. To solve this issue, we first deeply analyze the SDS and find that its distillation sampling process indeed corresponds to the trajectory sampling of a stochastic differential equation (SDE): SDS samples along an SDE trajectory to yield a less noisy sample which then serves as a guidance to optimize a 3D model. However, the randomness in SDE sampling often leads to a diverse and unpredictable sample which is not always less noisy, and thus is not a consistently correct guidance, explaining the vulnerability of SDS. Since for any SDE, there always exists an ordinary differential equation (ODE) whose trajectory sampling can deterministically and consistently converge to the desired target point as the SDE, we propose a novel and effective "Consistent3D" method that explores the ODE deterministic sampling prior for text-to-3D generation. Specifically, at each training iteration, given a rendered image by a 3D model, we first estimate its desired 3D score function by a pre-trained 2D diffusion model, and build an ODE for trajectory sampling. Next, we design a consistency distillation sampling loss which samples along the ODE trajectory to generate two adjacent samples and uses the less noisy sample to guide another more noisy one for distilling the deterministic prior into the 3D model. Experimental results show the efficacy of our Consistent3D in generating high-fidelity and diverse 3D objects and large-scale scenes, as shown in Fig. 1. The codes are available at https://github.com/sail-sg/Consistent3D.

We study a missing-value imputation method, termed kNNSampler, that imputes a given unit's missing response by randomly sampling from the observed responses of the k most similar units to the given unit in terms of the observed covariates. This method can sample unknown missing values from their distributions, quantify the uncertainties of missing values, and be readily used for multiple imputation. Unlike popular kNNImputer, which estimates the conditional mean of a missing response given an observed covariate, kNNSampler is theoretically shown to estimate the conditional distribution of a missing response given an observed covariate. Experiments demonstrate its effectiveness in recovering the distribution of missing values. The code for kNNSampler is made publicly available (https://github.com/SAP/knn-sampler).

The recently introduced continuous Skip-gram model is an efficient method for learning high-quality distributed vector representations that capture a large number of precise syntactic and semantic word relationships. In this paper we present several extensions that improve both the quality of the vectors and the training speed. By subsampling of the frequent words we obtain significant speedup and also learn more regular word representations. We also describe a simple alternative to the hierarchical softmax called negative sampling. An inherent limitation of word representations is their indifference to word order and their inability to represent idiomatic phrases. For example, the meanings of "Canada" and "Air" cannot be easily combined to obtain "Air Canada". Motivated by this example, we present a simple method for finding phrases in text, and show that learning good vector representations for millions of phrases is possible.

Mapping sequences of discrete data to a point in a continuous space makes it difficult to retrieve those sequences via random sampling. Mapping the input to a volume would make it easier to retrieve at test time, and that's the strategy followed by the family of approaches based on Variational Autoencoder. However the fact that they are at the same time optimizing for prediction and for smoothness of representation, forces them to trade-off between the two. We improve on the performance of some of the standard methods in deep learning to generate sentences by uniformly sampling a continuous space. We do it by proposing AriEL, that constructs volumes in a continuous space, without the need of encouraging the creation of volumes through the loss function. We first benchmark on a toy grammar, that allows to automatically evaluate the language learned and generated by the models. Then, we benchmark on a real dataset of human dialogues. Our results indicate that the random access to the stored information is dramatically improved, and our method AriEL is able to generate a wider variety of correct language by randomly sampling the latent space. VAE follows in performance for the toy dataset while, AE and Transformer follow for the real dataset. This partially supports to the hypothesis that encoding information into volumes instead of into points, can lead to improved retrieval of learned information with random sampling. This can lead to better generators and we also discuss potential disadvantages.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being used to simulate human-like decision making in agent-based financial market models (ABMs). As models become more powerful and accessible, researchers can now incorporate individual LLM decisions into ABM environments. However, integration may introduce inherent biases that need careful evaluation. In this paper we test three state-of-the-art GPT models for bias using two model sampling approaches: one-shot and few-shot API queries. We observe significant variations in distributions of outputs between specific models, and model sub versions, with GPT-4o-Mini-2024-07-18 showing notably better performance (32-43% yes responses) compared to GPT-4-0125-preview's extreme bias (98-99% yes responses). We show that sampling methods and model sub-versions significantly impact results: repeated independent API calls produce different distributions compared to batch sampling within a single call. While no current GPT model can simultaneously achieve a uniform distribution and Markovian properties in one-shot testing, few-shot sampling can approach uniform distributions under certain conditions. We explore the Temperature parameter, providing a definition and comparative results. We further compare our results to true random binary series and test specifically for the common human bias of Negative Recency - finding LLMs have a mixed ability to 'beat' humans in this one regard. These findings emphasise the critical importance of careful LLM integration into ABMs for financial markets and more broadly.

While recent generative models can produce engaging music, their utility is limited. The variation in the music is often left to chance, resulting in compositions that lack structure. Pieces extending beyond a minute can become incoherent or repetitive. This paper introduces an approach for generating structured, arbitrarily long musical pieces. Central to this approach is the creation of musical segments using a conditional generative model, with transitions between these segments. The generation of prompts that determine the high-level composition is distinct from the creation of finer, lower-level details. A large language model is then used to suggest the musical form.

Speculative sampling has emerged as an important technique for accelerating the auto-regressive generation process of large language models (LLMs) by utilizing a draft-then-verify mechanism to produce multiple tokens per forward pass. While state-of-the-art speculative sampling methods use only a single layer and a language modeling (LM) head as the draft model to achieve impressive layer compression, their efficiency gains are substantially reduced for large-vocabulary LLMs, such as Llama-3-8B with a vocabulary of 128k tokens. To address this, we present FR-Spec, a frequency-ranked speculative sampling framework that optimizes draft candidate selection through vocabulary space compression. By constraining the draft search to a frequency-prioritized token subset, our method reduces LM Head computation overhead by 75% while ensuring the equivalence of the final output distribution. Experiments across multiple datasets demonstrate an average of 1.12times speedup over the state-of-the-art speculative sampling method EAGLE-2.

We discover that common diffusion noise schedules do not enforce the last timestep to have zero signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and some implementations of diffusion samplers do not start from the last timestep. Such designs are flawed and do not reflect the fact that the model is given pure Gaussian noise at inference, creating a discrepancy between training and inference. We show that the flawed design causes real problems in existing implementations. In Stable Diffusion, it severely limits the model to only generate images with medium brightness and prevents it from generating very bright and dark samples. We propose a few simple fixes: (1) rescale the noise schedule to enforce zero terminal SNR; (2) train the model with v prediction; (3) change the sampler to always start from the last timestep; (4) rescale classifier-free guidance to prevent over-exposure. These simple changes ensure the diffusion process is congruent between training and inference and allow the model to generate samples more faithful to the original data distribution.

Despite the remarkable success of diffusion models in image generation, slow sampling remains a persistent issue. To accelerate the sampling process, prior studies have reformulated diffusion sampling as an ODE/SDE and introduced higher-order numerical methods. However, these methods often produce divergence artifacts, especially with a low number of sampling steps, which limits the achievable acceleration. In this paper, we investigate the potential causes of these artifacts and suggest that the small stability regions of these methods could be the principal cause. To address this issue, we propose two novel techniques. The first technique involves the incorporation of Heavy Ball (HB) momentum, a well-known technique for improving optimization, into existing diffusion numerical methods to expand their stability regions. We also prove that the resulting methods have first-order convergence. The second technique, called Generalized Heavy Ball (GHVB), constructs a new high-order method that offers a variable trade-off between accuracy and artifact suppression. Experimental results show that our techniques are highly effective in reducing artifacts and improving image quality, surpassing state-of-the-art diffusion solvers on both pixel-based and latent-based diffusion models for low-step sampling. Our research provides novel insights into the design of numerical methods for future diffusion work.

Sampling proper negatives from a large document pool is vital to effectively train a dense retrieval model. However, existing negative sampling strategies suffer from the uninformative or false negative problem. In this work, we empirically show that according to the measured relevance scores, the negatives ranked around the positives are generally more informative and less likely to be false negatives. Intuitively, these negatives are not too hard (may be false negatives) or too easy (uninformative). They are the ambiguous negatives and need more attention during training. Thus, we propose a simple ambiguous negatives sampling method, SimANS, which incorporates a new sampling probability distribution to sample more ambiguous negatives. Extensive experiments on four public and one industry datasets show the effectiveness of our approach. We made the code and models publicly available in https://github.com/microsoft/SimXNS.

Large Language Models (LLMs) generate longform text by successively sampling the next token based on the probability distribution of the token vocabulary at each decoding step. Current popular truncation sampling methods such as top-p sampling, also known as nucleus sampling, often struggle to balance coherence and creativity in generating text, particularly when using higher temperatures. To address this issue, we propose min-p, a dynamic truncation sampling method, that establishes a minimum base percentage threshold for tokens, which the scales according to the probability of the top candidate token. Through experiments on several benchmarks, such as GPQA, GSM8K and AlpacaEval Creative Writing, we demonstrate that min-p improves the coherence and quality of generated text even at high temperatures, while also facilitating more creative and diverse outputs compared to top-p and other sampling methods. As of writing, min-p has been adopted by multiple open-source LLM implementations, and have been independently assessed by members of the open-source LLM community, further validating its practical utility and potential.

This paper addresses a regression problem in which output label values are the results of sensing the magnitude of a phenomenon. A low value of such labels can mean either that the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was low or that the sensor made an incomplete observation. This leads to a bias toward lower values in labels and the resultant learning because labels may have lower values due to incomplete observations, even if the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was high. Moreover, because an incomplete observation does not provide any tags indicating incompleteness, we cannot eliminate or impute them. To address this issue, we propose a learning algorithm that explicitly models incomplete observations corrupted with an asymmetric noise that always has a negative value. We show that our algorithm is unbiased as if it were learned from uncorrupted data that does not involve incomplete observations. We demonstrate the advantages of our algorithm through numerical experiments.

Machine learning has opened up new tools for financial fraud detection. Using a sample of annotated transactions, a machine learning classification algorithm learns to detect frauds. With growing credit card transaction volumes and rising fraud percentages there is growing interest in finding appropriate machine learning classifiers for detection. However, fraud data sets are diverse and exhibit inconsistent characteristics. As a result, a model effective on a given data set is not guaranteed to perform on another. Further, the possibility of temporal drift in data patterns and characteristics over time is high. Additionally, fraud data has massive and varying imbalance. In this work, we evaluate sampling methods as a viable pre-processing mechanism to handle imbalance and propose a data-driven classifier selection strategy for characteristic highly imbalanced fraud detection data sets. The model derived based on our selection strategy surpasses peer models, whilst working in more realistic conditions, establishing the effectiveness of the strategy.

The SIML (abbreviation of Separating Information Maximal Likelihood) method, has been introduced by N. Kunitomo and S. Sato and their collaborators to estimate the integrated volatility of high-frequency data that is assumed to be an It\^o process but with so-called microstructure noise. The SIML estimator turned out to share many properties with the estimator introduced by P. Malliavin and M.E. Mancino. The present paper establishes the consistency and the asymptotic normality under a general sampling scheme but without microstructure noise. Specifically, a fast convergence shown for Malliavin--Mancino estimator by E. Clement and A. Gloter is also established for the SIML estimator.

Sampling-based algorithms, which eliminate ''unimportant'' computations during forward and/or back propagation (BP), offer potential solutions to accelerate neural network training. However, since sampling introduces approximations to training, such algorithms may not consistently maintain accuracy across various tasks. In this work, we introduce a variance-controlled adaptive sampling (VCAS) method designed to accelerate BP. VCAS computes an unbiased stochastic gradient with fine-grained layerwise importance sampling in data dimension for activation gradient calculation and leverage score sampling in token dimension for weight gradient calculation. To preserve accuracy, we control the additional variance by learning the sample ratio jointly with model parameters during training. We assessed VCAS on multiple fine-tuning and pre-training tasks in both vision and natural language domains. On all the tasks, VCAS can preserve the original training loss trajectory and validation accuracy with an up to 73.87% FLOPs reduction of BP and 49.58% FLOPs reduction of the whole training process. The implementation is available at https://github.com/thu-ml/VCAS .

We propose an embarrassingly simple method -- instance-aware repeat factor sampling (IRFS) to address the problem of imbalanced data in long-tailed object detection. Imbalanced datasets in real-world object detection often suffer from a large disparity in the number of instances for each class. To improve the generalization performance of object detection models on rare classes, various data sampling techniques have been proposed. Repeat factor sampling (RFS) has shown promise due to its simplicity and effectiveness. Despite its efficiency, RFS completely neglects the instance counts and solely relies on the image count during re-sampling process. However, instance count may immensely vary for different classes with similar image counts. Such variation highlights the importance of both image and instance for addressing the long-tail distributions. Thus, we propose IRFS which unifies instance and image counts for the re-sampling process to be aware of different perspectives of the imbalance in long-tailed datasets. Our method shows promising results on the challenging LVIS v1.0 benchmark dataset over various architectures and backbones, demonstrating their effectiveness in improving the performance of object detection models on rare classes with a relative +50% average precision (AP) improvement over counterpart RFS. IRFS can serve as a strong baseline and be easily incorporated into existing long-tailed frameworks.

Recent large-scale neural autoregressive sequence models have shown impressive performances on a variety of natural language generation tasks. However, their generated sequences often exhibit degenerate properties such as non-termination, undesirable repetition, and premature termination, when generated with decoding algorithms such as greedy search, beam search, top-k sampling, and nucleus sampling. In this paper, we focus on the problem of non-terminating sequences resulting from an incomplete decoding algorithm. We first define an incomplete probable decoding algorithm which includes greedy search, top-k sampling, and nucleus sampling, beyond the incomplete decoding algorithm originally put forward by Welleck et al. (2020). We then propose a non-monotonic self-terminating language model, which significantly relaxes the constraint of monotonically increasing termination probability in the originally proposed self-terminating language model by Welleck et al. (2020), to address the issue of non-terminating sequences when using incomplete probable decoding algorithms. We prove that our proposed model prevents non-terminating sequences when using not only incomplete probable decoding algorithms but also beam search. We empirically validate our model on sequence completion tasks with various architectures.

We study the relationship between vocabulary size and text length in a corpus of 75 literary works in English, authored by six writers, distinguishing between the contributions of three grammatical classes (or ``tags,'' namely, {\it nouns}, {\it verbs}, and {\it others}), and analyze the progressive appearance of new words of each tag along each individual text. While the power-law relation prescribed by Heaps' law is satisfactorily fulfilled by total vocabulary sizes and text lengths, the appearance of new words in each text is on the whole well described by the average of random shufflings of the text, which does not obey a power law. Deviations from this average, however, are statistically significant and show a systematic trend across the corpus. Specifically, they reveal that the appearance of new words along each text is predominantly retarded with respect to the average of random shufflings. Moreover, different tags are shown to add systematically distinct contributions to this tendency, with {\it verbs} and {\it others} being respectively more and less retarded than the mean trend, and {\it nouns} following instead this overall mean. These statistical systematicities are likely to point to the existence of linguistically relevant information stored in the different variants of Heaps' law, a feature that is still in need of extensive assessment.

We show how to obtain improved active learning methods in the agnostic (adversarial noise) setting by combining marginal leverage score sampling with non-independent sampling strategies that promote spatial coverage. In particular, we propose an easily implemented method based on the pivotal sampling algorithm, which we test on problems motivated by learning-based methods for parametric PDEs and uncertainty quantification. In comparison to independent sampling, our method reduces the number of samples needed to reach a given target accuracy by up to 50%. We support our findings with two theoretical results. First, we show that any non-independent leverage score sampling method that obeys a weak one-sided ell_{infty} independence condition (which includes pivotal sampling) can actively learn d dimensional linear functions with O(dlog d) samples, matching independent sampling. This result extends recent work on matrix Chernoff bounds under ell_{infty} independence, and may be of interest for analyzing other sampling strategies beyond pivotal sampling. Second, we show that, for the important case of polynomial regression, our pivotal method obtains an improved bound of O(d) samples.

Sampling is ubiquitous in machine learning methodologies. Due to the growth of large datasets and model complexity, we want to learn and adapt the sampling process while training a representation. Towards achieving this grand goal, a variety of sampling techniques have been proposed. However, most of them either use a fixed sampling scheme or adjust the sampling scheme based on simple heuristics. They cannot choose the best sample for model training in different stages. Inspired by "Think, Fast and Slow" (System 1 and System 2) in cognitive science, we propose a reward-guided sampling strategy called Adaptive Sample with Reward (ASR) to tackle this challenge. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work utilizing reinforcement learning (RL) to address the sampling problem in representation learning. Our approach optimally adjusts the sampling process to achieve optimal performance. We explore geographical relationships among samples by distance-based sampling to maximize overall cumulative reward. We apply ASR to the long-standing sampling problems in similarity-based loss functions. Empirical results in information retrieval and clustering demonstrate ASR's superb performance across different datasets. We also discuss an engrossing phenomenon which we name as "ASR gravity well" in experiments.

The study conducted by Shumailov et al. (2024) demonstrates that repeatedly training a generative model on synthetic data leads to model collapse. This finding has generated considerable interest and debate, particularly given that current models have nearly exhausted the available data. In this work, we investigate the effects of fitting a distribution (through Kernel Density Estimation, or KDE) or a model to the data, followed by repeated sampling from it. Our objective is to develop a theoretical understanding of the phenomenon observed by Shumailov et al. (2024). Our results indicate that the outcomes reported are a statistical phenomenon and may be unavoidable.

Existing pretraining data mixing methods for large language models (LLMs) typically follow a domain-wise methodology, a top-down process that first determines domain weights and then performs uniform data sampling across each domain. However, these approaches neglect significant inter-domain overlaps and commonalities, failing to control the global diversity of the constructed training dataset. Further, uniform sampling within domains ignores fine-grained sample-specific features, potentially leading to suboptimal data distribution. To address these shortcomings, we propose a novel sample-wise data mixture approach based on a bottom-up paradigm. This method performs global cross-domain sampling by systematically evaluating the quality and diversity of each sample, thereby dynamically determining the optimal domain distribution. Comprehensive experiments across multiple downstream tasks and perplexity assessments demonstrate that SampleMix surpasses existing domain-based methods. Meanwhile, SampleMix requires 1.4x to 2.1x training steps to achieves the baselines' performance, highlighting the substantial potential of SampleMix to optimize pre-training data.

Generative processes that involve solving differential equations, such as diffusion models, frequently necessitate balancing speed and quality. ODE-based samplers are fast but plateau in performance while SDE-based samplers deliver higher sample quality at the cost of increased sampling time. We attribute this difference to sampling errors: ODE-samplers involve smaller discretization errors while stochasticity in SDE contracts accumulated errors. Based on these findings, we propose a novel sampling algorithm called Restart in order to better balance discretization errors and contraction. The sampling method alternates between adding substantial noise in additional forward steps and strictly following a backward ODE. Empirically, Restart sampler surpasses previous SDE and ODE samplers in both speed and accuracy. Restart not only outperforms the previous best SDE results, but also accelerates the sampling speed by 10-fold / 2-fold on CIFAR-10 / ImageNet 64 times 64. In addition, it attains significantly better sample quality than ODE samplers within comparable sampling times. Moreover, Restart better balances text-image alignment/visual quality versus diversity than previous samplers in the large-scale text-to-image Stable Diffusion model pre-trained on LAION 512 times 512. Code is available at https://github.com/Newbeeer/diffusion_restart_sampling

For learning with noisy labels, the transition matrix, which explicitly models the relation between noisy label distribution and clean label distribution, has been utilized to achieve the statistical consistency of either the classifier or the risk. Previous researches have focused more on how to estimate this transition matrix well, rather than how to utilize it. We propose good utilization of the transition matrix is crucial and suggest a new utilization method based on resampling, coined RENT. Specifically, we first demonstrate current utilizations can have potential limitations for implementation. As an extension to Reweighting, we suggest the Dirichlet distribution-based per-sample Weight Sampling (DWS) framework, and compare reweighting and resampling under DWS framework. With the analyses from DWS, we propose RENT, a REsampling method with Noise Transition matrix. Empirically, RENT consistently outperforms existing transition matrix utilization methods, which includes reweighting, on various benchmark datasets. Our code is available at https://github.com/BaeHeeSun/RENT.

We develop a framework for non-asymptotic analysis of deterministic samplers used for diffusion generative modeling. Several recent works have analyzed stochastic samplers using tools like Girsanov's theorem and a chain rule variant of the interpolation argument. Unfortunately, these techniques give vacuous bounds when applied to deterministic samplers. We give a new operational interpretation for deterministic sampling by showing that one step along the probability flow ODE can be expressed as two steps: 1) a restoration step that runs gradient ascent on the conditional log-likelihood at some infinitesimally previous time, and 2) a degradation step that runs the forward process using noise pointing back towards the current iterate. This perspective allows us to extend denoising diffusion implicit models to general, non-linear forward processes. We then develop the first polynomial convergence bounds for these samplers under mild conditions on the data distribution.

Language model performance depends on identifying the optimal mixture of data groups to train on (e.g., law, code, math). Prior work has proposed a diverse set of methods to efficiently learn mixture proportions, ranging from fitting regression models over training runs to dynamically updating proportions throughout training. Surprisingly, we find that no existing method consistently outperforms a simple stratified sampling baseline in terms of average test perplexity. To understand this inconsistency, we unify existing methods into a standard framework, showing they are equivalent to solving a common optimization problem: minimize average loss subject to a method-specific mixing law -- an implicit assumption on the relationship between loss and mixture proportions. This framework suggests that measuring the fidelity of a method's mixing law can offer insights into its performance. Empirically, we find that existing methods set their mixing law parameters inaccurately, resulting in the inconsistent mixing performance we observe. Using this insight, we derive a new online method named Aioli, which directly estimates the mixing law parameters throughout training and uses them to dynamically adjust proportions. Aioli outperforms stratified sampling on 6 out of 6 datasets by an average of 0.27 test perplexity points, whereas existing methods fail to consistently beat stratified sampling, doing up to 6.9 points worse. Moreover, in a practical setting where proportions are learned on shorter runs due to computational constraints, Aioli can dynamically adjust these proportions over the full training run, consistently improving performance over existing methods by up to 12.012 test perplexity points.

In the real world, the frequency of occurrence of objects is naturally skewed forming long-tail class distributions, which results in poor performance on the statistically rare classes. A promising solution is to mine tail-class examples to balance the training dataset. However, mining tail-class examples is a very challenging task. For instance, most of the otherwise successful uncertainty-based mining approaches struggle due to distortion of class probabilities resulting from skewness in data. In this work, we propose an effective, yet simple, approach to overcome these challenges. Our framework enhances the subdued tail-class activations and, thereafter, uses a one-class data-centric approach to effectively identify tail-class examples. We carry out an exhaustive evaluation of our framework on three datasets spanning over two computer vision tasks. Substantial improvements in the minority-class mining and fine-tuned model's performance strongly corroborate the value of our proposed solution.

Assessing sampling uncertainty in extremum estimation can be challenging when the asymptotic variance is not analytically tractable. Bootstrap inference offers a feasible solution but can be computationally costly especially when the model is complex. This paper uses iterates of a specially designed stochastic optimization algorithm as draws from which both point estimates and bootstrap standard errors can be computed in a single run. The draws are generated by the gradient and Hessian computed from batches of data that are resampled at each iteration. We show that these draws yield consistent estimates and asymptotically valid frequentist inference for a large class of regular problems. The algorithm provides accurate standard errors in simulation examples and empirical applications at low computational costs. The draws from the algorithm also provide a convenient way to detect data irregularities.

Today's probabilistic language generators fall short when it comes to producing coherent and fluent text despite the fact that the underlying models perform well under standard metrics, e.g., perplexity. This discrepancy has puzzled the language generation community for the last few years. In this work, we posit that the abstraction of natural language generation as a discrete stochastic process--which allows for an information-theoretic analysis--can provide new insights into the behavior of probabilistic language generators, e.g., why high-probability texts can be dull or repetitive. Humans use language as a means of communicating information, aiming to do so in a simultaneously efficient and error-minimizing manner; in fact, psycholinguistics research suggests humans choose each word in a string with this subconscious goal in mind. We formally define the set of strings that meet this criterion: those for which each word has an information content close to the expected information content, i.e., the conditional entropy of our model. We then propose a simple and efficient procedure for enforcing this criterion when generating from probabilistic models, which we call locally typical sampling. Automatic and human evaluations show that, in comparison to nucleus and top-k sampling, locally typical sampling offers competitive performance (in both abstractive summarization and story generation) in terms of quality while consistently reducing degenerate repetitions.

We study the realizability of simplicial complexes with a given pair of integer sequences, representing the node degree distribution and the facet size distribution, respectively. While the s-uniform variant of the problem is NP-complete when s geq 3, we identify two populations of input sequences, most of which can be solved in polynomial time using a recursive algorithm that we contribute. Combining with a sampler for the simplicial configuration model [J.-G. Young et al., Phys. Rev. E 96, 032312 (2017)], we facilitate the efficient sampling of simplicial ensembles from arbitrary degree and size distributions. We find that, contrary to expectations based on dyadic networks, increasing the nodes' degrees reduces the number of loops in simplicial complexes. Our work unveils a fundamental constraint on the degree-size sequences and sheds light on further analysis of higher-order phenomena based on local structures.

We introduce ensembles within score-based sampling methods to develop gradient-free approximate sampling techniques that leverage the collective dynamics of particle ensembles to compute approximate reverse diffusion drifts. We introduce the underlying methodology, emphasizing its relationship with generative diffusion models and the previously introduced F\"ollmer sampler. We demonstrate the efficacy of ensemble strategies through various examples, ranging from low- to medium-dimensionality sampling problems, including multi-modal and highly non-Gaussian probability distributions, and provide comparisons to traditional methods like NUTS. Our findings highlight the potential of ensemble strategies for modeling complex probability distributions in situations where gradients are unavailable. Finally, we showcase its application in the context of Bayesian inversion problems within the geophysical sciences.

Incrementally fine-tuning foundational models on new tasks or domains is now the de facto approach in NLP. A known pitfall of this approach is the catastrophic forgetting of prior knowledge that happens during fine-tuning. A common approach to alleviate such forgetting is to rehearse samples from prior tasks during fine-tuning. Several existing works assume a fixed memory buffer to store prior task examples, while relying on inferences (forward passes) with the model at hand for choosing examples for rehearsal from the buffer. However, given the increasing computational cost of model inference, and decreasing cost of data storage, we focus on the setting to rehearse samples with a fixed computational budget instead of a fixed memory budget. We propose a sampling scheme, \bf mix-cd, that prioritizes rehearsal of ``collateral damage'' samples, which are samples predicted correctly by the prior model but forgotten by the incrementally tuned one. The crux of our scheme is a procedure to efficiently estimate the density of collateral damage samples without incurring additional model inferences. Our approach is computationally efficient, easy to implement, and outperforms several leading continual learning methods in compute-constrained settings. All the code will be publicly available at https://github.com/jybai/mix-cd-rehearsal.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

We introduce a novel framework for efficient sampling from complex, unnormalised target distributions by exploiting multiscale dynamics. Traditional score-based sampling methods either rely on learned approximations of the score function or involve computationally expensive nested Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) loops. In contrast, the proposed approach leverages stochastic averaging within a slow-fast system of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to estimate intermediate scores along a diffusion path without training or inner-loop MCMC. Two algorithms are developed under this framework: MultALMC, which uses multiscale annealed Langevin dynamics, and MultCDiff, based on multiscale controlled diffusions for the reverse-time Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Both overdamped and underdamped variants are considered, with theoretical guarantees of convergence to the desired diffusion path. The framework is extended to handle heavy-tailed target distributions using Student's t-based noise models and tailored fast-process dynamics. Empirical results across synthetic and real-world benchmarks, including multimodal and high-dimensional distributions, demonstrate that the proposed methods are competitive with existing samplers in terms of accuracy and efficiency, without the need for learned models.

Sampling-based search, a simple paradigm for utilizing test-time compute, involves generating multiple candidate responses and selecting the best one -- typically by verifying each response for correctness. In this paper, we study the scaling trends governing sampling-based search. Among our findings is that simply scaling up a minimalist implementation that uses only random sampling and direct self-verification results in sustained performance improvements that, for example, elevate the Gemini v1.5 Pro model's reasoning capabilities past that of o1-Preview on popular benchmarks. We partially attribute the scalability of sampling-based search to a phenomenon of implicit scaling, where sampling a larger pool of responses in turn improves verification accuracy. We further identify two useful principles for improving self-verification capabilities with test-time compute: (1) comparing across responses provides helpful signals about the locations of errors and hallucinations, and (2) different model output styles are useful for different contexts -- chains of thought are useful for reasoning but harder to verify. We also find that, though accurate verification can be elicited, frontier models demonstrate remarkably weak out-of-box verification capabilities and introduce a benchmark to measure progress on these deficiencies.

We begin the study of list-decodable linear regression using batches. In this setting only an alpha in (0,1] fraction of the batches are genuine. Each genuine batch contains ge n i.i.d. samples from a common unknown distribution and the remaining batches may contain arbitrary or even adversarial samples. We derive a polynomial time algorithm that for any nge tilde Omega(1/alpha) returns a list of size mathcal O(1/alpha^2) such that one of the items in the list is close to the true regression parameter. The algorithm requires only mathcal{O}(d/alpha^2) genuine batches and works under fairly general assumptions on the distribution. The results demonstrate the utility of batch structure, which allows for the first polynomial time algorithm for list-decodable regression, which may be impossible for the non-batch setting, as suggested by a recent SQ lower bound diakonikolas2021statistical for the non-batch setting.

Sampling is a basic operation in many inference-time algorithms of large language models (LLMs). To scale up inference efficiently with a limited compute, it is crucial to find an optimal allocation for sample compute budgets: Which sampling configurations (model, temperature, language, etc.) do we use? How many samples do we generate in each configuration? We formulate these choices as a learning problem and propose OSCA, an algorithm that Optimizes Sample Compute Allocation by finding an optimal mix of different inference configurations. Our experiments show that with our learned mixed allocation, we can achieve accuracy better than the best single configuration with 128x less compute on code generation and 25x less compute on 4 reasoning tasks. OSCA is also shown to be effective in agentic workflows beyond single-turn tasks, achieving a better accuracy on SWE-Bench with 3x less compute than the default configuration. Our code and generations are released at https://github.com/LeiLiLab/OSCA.

Diffusion models (DMs) have established themselves as the state-of-the-art generative modeling approach in the visual domain and beyond. A crucial drawback of DMs is their slow sampling speed, relying on many sequential function evaluations through large neural networks. Sampling from DMs can be seen as solving a differential equation through a discretized set of noise levels known as the sampling schedule. While past works primarily focused on deriving efficient solvers, little attention has been given to finding optimal sampling schedules, and the entire literature relies on hand-crafted heuristics. In this work, for the first time, we propose a general and principled approach to optimizing the sampling schedules of DMs for high-quality outputs, called Align Your Steps. We leverage methods from stochastic calculus and find optimal schedules specific to different solvers, trained DMs and datasets. We evaluate our novel approach on several image, video as well as 2D toy data synthesis benchmarks, using a variety of different samplers, and observe that our optimized schedules outperform previous hand-crafted schedules in almost all experiments. Our method demonstrates the untapped potential of sampling schedule optimization, especially in the few-step synthesis regime.

Overparametrization often helps improve the generalization performance. This paper proposes a dual view of overparametrization suggesting that downsampling may also help generalize. Motivated by this dual view, we characterize two out-of-sample prediction risks of the sketched ridgeless least square estimator in the proportional regime masymp n asymp p, where m is the sketching size, n the sample size, and p the feature dimensionality. Our results reveal the statistical role of downsampling. Specifically, downsampling does not always hurt the generalization performance, and may actually help improve it in some cases. We identify the optimal sketching sizes that minimize the out-of-sample prediction risks, and find that the optimally sketched estimator has stabler risk curves that eliminates the peaks of those for the full-sample estimator. We then propose a practical procedure to empirically identify the optimal sketching size. Finally, we extend our results to cover central limit theorems and misspecified models. Numerical studies strongly support our theory.

Given a matrix Ain R^{ntimes d} and a vector bin R^n, we consider the regression problem with ell_infty guarantees: finding a vector x'in R^d such that |x'-x^*|_infty leq epsilon{d}cdot |Ax^*-b|_2cdot |A^dagger| where x^*=argmin_{xin R^d}|Ax-b|_2. One popular approach for solving such ell_2 regression problem is via sketching: picking a structured random matrix Sin R^{mtimes n} with mll n and SA can be quickly computed, solve the ``sketched'' regression problem argmin_{xin R^d} |SAx-Sb|_2. In this paper, we show that in order to obtain such ell_infty guarantee for ell_2 regression, one has to use sketching matrices that are dense. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first user case in which dense sketching matrices are necessary. On the algorithmic side, we prove that there exists a distribution of dense sketching matrices with m=epsilon^{-2}dlog^3(n/delta) such that solving the sketched regression problem gives the ell_infty guarantee, with probability at least 1-delta. Moreover, the matrix SA can be computed in time O(ndlog n). Our row count is nearly-optimal up to logarithmic factors, and significantly improves the result in [Price, Song and Woodruff, ICALP'17], in which a super-linear in d rows, m=Omega(epsilon^{-2}d^{1+gamma}) for gamma=Theta(frac{loglog n{log d}}) is required. We also develop a novel analytical framework for ell_infty guarantee regression that utilizes the Oblivious Coordinate-wise Embedding (OCE) property introduced in [Song and Yu, ICML'21]. Our analysis is arguably much simpler and more general than [Price, Song and Woodruff, ICALP'17], and it extends to dense sketches for tensor product of vectors.

Software engineers mainly write code by editing existing programs. In contrast, large language models (LLMs) autoregressively synthesize programs in a single pass. One explanation for this is the scarcity of open-sourced edit data. While high-quality instruction data for code synthesis is already scarce, high-quality edit data is even scarcer. To fill this gap, we develop a synthetic data generation algorithm called LintSeq. This algorithm refactors existing code into a sequence of code edits by using a linter to procedurally sample across the error-free insertions that can be used to sequentially write programs. It outputs edit sequences as text strings consisting of consecutive program diffs. To test LintSeq, we use it to refactor a dataset of instruction + program pairs into instruction + program-diff-sequence tuples. Then, we instruction finetune a series of smaller LLMs ranging from 2.6B to 14B parameters on both the re-factored and original versions of this dataset, comparing zero-shot performance on code synthesis benchmarks. We show that during repeated sampling, edit sequence finetuned models produce more diverse programs than baselines. This results in better inference-time scaling for benchmark coverage as a function of samples, i.e. the fraction of problems "pass@k" solved by any attempt given "k" tries. For example, on HumanEval pass@50, small LLMs finetuned on synthetic edit sequences are competitive with GPT-4 and outperform models finetuned on the baseline dataset by +20% (+/-3%) in absolute score. Finally, we also pretrain our own tiny LMs for code understanding. We show that finetuning tiny models on synthetic code edits results in state-of-the-art code synthesis for the on-device model class. Our 150M parameter edit sequence LM matches or outperforms code models with twice as many parameters, both with and without repeated sampling, including Codex and AlphaCode.

Discrete diffusion models (DDMs) have shown powerful generation ability for discrete data modalities like text and molecules. However, their practical application is hindered by inefficient sampling, requiring a large number of sampling steps. Accelerating DDMs by using larger step sizes typically introduces significant problems in generation quality, as it amplifies the impact of both the compounding decoding error due to factorized predictions and discretization error from numerical approximations, leading to a significant decrease in sampling quality. To address these challenges, we propose learnable sampler distillation (LSD), a novel approach to train fast and high-fidelity samplers for DDMs. LSD employs a distillation approach where a student sampler with a few steps learns to align its intermediate score trajectory with that of a high-quality teacher sampler with numerous steps. This alignment is achieved by optimizing learnable sampler coefficients that adaptively adjust sampling dynamics. Additionally, we further propose LSD+, which also learns time schedules that allocate steps non-uniformly. Experiments across text generation, image generation, and synthetic tasks demonstrate that our proposed approaches outperform existing samplers for DDMs, achieving substantially higher sampling quality with significantly fewer sampling steps. Our code is available at https://github.com/feiyangfu/LSD{https://github.com/feiyangfu/LSD}.

The success of the machine learning field has reliably depended on training on large datasets. While effective, this trend comes at an extraordinary cost. This is due to two deeply intertwined factors: the size of models and the size of datasets. While promising research efforts focus on reducing the size of models, the other half of the equation remains fairly mysterious. Indeed, it is surprising that the standard approach to training remains to iterate over and over, uniformly sampling the training dataset. In this paper we explore a series of alternative training paradigms that leverage insights from hard-data-mining and dropout, simple enough to implement and use that can become the new training standard. The proposed Progressive Data Dropout reduces the number of effective epochs to as little as 12.4% of the baseline. This savings actually do not come at any cost for accuracy. Surprisingly, the proposed method improves accuracy by up to 4.82%. Our approach requires no changes to model architecture or optimizer, and can be applied across standard training pipelines, thus posing an excellent opportunity for wide adoption. Code can be found here: https://github.com/bazyagami/LearningWithRevision

The past few years have witnessed the great success of Diffusion models~(DMs) in generating high-fidelity samples in generative modeling tasks. A major limitation of the DM is its notoriously slow sampling procedure which normally requires hundreds to thousands of time discretization steps of the learned diffusion process to reach the desired accuracy. Our goal is to develop a fast sampling method for DMs with a much less number of steps while retaining high sample quality. To this end, we systematically analyze the sampling procedure in DMs and identify key factors that affect the sample quality, among which the method of discretization is most crucial. By carefully examining the learned diffusion process, we propose Diffusion Exponential Integrator Sampler~(DEIS). It is based on the Exponential Integrator designed for discretizing ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and leverages a semilinear structure of the learned diffusion process to reduce the discretization error. The proposed method can be applied to any DMs and can generate high-fidelity samples in as few as 10 steps. In our experiments, it takes about 3 minutes on one A6000 GPU to generate 50k images from CIFAR10. Moreover, by directly using pre-trained DMs, we achieve the state-of-art sampling performance when the number of score function evaluation~(NFE) is limited, e.g., 4.17 FID with 10 NFEs, 3.37 FID, and 9.74 IS with only 15 NFEs on CIFAR10. Code is available at https://github.com/qsh-zh/deis

Hoffmann et al. (2022) propose three methods for estimating a compute-optimal scaling law. We attempt to replicate their third estimation procedure, which involves fitting a parametric loss function to a reconstruction of data from their plots. We find that the reported estimates are inconsistent with their first two estimation methods, fail at fitting the extracted data, and report implausibly narrow confidence intervals--intervals this narrow would require over 600,000 experiments, while they likely only ran fewer than 500. In contrast, our rederivation of the scaling law using the third approach yields results that are compatible with the findings from the first two estimation procedures described by Hoffmann et al.