In this paper are presented mathematical predictions on the evolution in time of the number of positive cases in Italy of the COVID-19 pandemic
those predictions are obtained with a heuristic approach
In this paper are presented mathematical predictions on the evolution in time of the number of positive cases in Italy of the COVID-19 pandemic based on official data and on the use of a function of the type of a Gauss error function , with four parameters , as a cumulative distribution function .
Although official data have been used , those predictions are obtained with a heuristic approach since they are based on a statistical approach and do not take into account either a number of relevant issues ( such as number of daily nasopharyngeal swabs , medical , social distancing , virological and epidemiological ) or models of contamination diffusion .