that peak phase and data paucity have a substantial impact on the reliability of model predictions .
our conclusions most likely apply to most existing models ,
In this work , we show that peak phase and data paucity have a substantial impact on the reliability of model predictions .
Although we focus on a recent model of the COVID pandemics , our conclusions most likely apply to most existing models , which are variants of the socalled " Susceptible - Infected - Removed " or SIR framework .